By Kaveh L Afrasiabi

NEW YORK – A much-anticipated meeting of the “Iran Six” nations at the weekend to discuss the next steps for sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program ended without any progress.

The New York meeting’s failure to reach a decision has been blamed on China, which sent a low-level representative in an open gesture to oppose new sanctions on Iran. It bursts the bubble of unity among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, France, Britain, China and Russia – who, along with Germany, constitute the “Iran Six”.

The stage is now set for non-UN sanctions by the United States, which, along with Israel, has proposed “crippling sanctions” against Iran in the belief that it could use its atomic energy program to make nuclear weapons. Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and in line with its rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
“There have been ongoing negotiations and messages are being exchanged so we have to just wait,” Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference in Tehran on Monday. “There are some minor signs indicating a realistic approach, so any probable developments or progress can be discussed later.”

At this stage it is unclear what the content of any new sanctions to be adopted by the UN would be, and even the US has shown some signs of ambivalence. The alternative to further sanctions is the recognition of Iran’s rights as long as it remains transparent and in full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

It is more likely than not that China kept the other powers from getting carried away by rhetoric against Iran, as their words often do not match their policies or intentions.

With the war in Afghanistan going badly for the US, and troubling signs hovering over Iraq, the last thing the US government wants is worsening regional security triggered by tough action against Tehran. The Israelis appear to have recognized this, as they have downgraded some of their media blitz against Iran lately, although Israel hasn’t given up on the idea of the “crippling sanctions” which their allies in the US Congress are seeking through legislation banning the export of petroleum products to Iran.

That legislation, already passed in the House of Representatives, is now pending in the US Senate and sources tell the author there is serious opposition to it from senators who prefer giving diplomacy a longer chance, instead of resorting to coercive tactics that may backfire with the Iranian population, which would be affected by sanctions. Still, the bill may be adopted, in light of the failure over the weekend and the determination of pro-Israel US lawmakers to punish Iran for what they perceive to be its steady march toward nuclear weapons.

However, that perception isn’t shared by some key figures in the US intelligence community, who recently said they had not seen any evidence that Iran had decided to develop nuclear weapons. This, together with the unraveling of disinformation on Iran’s atomic energy program, such as the fake neutron trigger document, have strengthened the arguments of those in favor of “normalizing” the Iran nuclear dossier as long as the nation remains faithful to its NPT obligations and the terms of its safeguard and verification agreement with the IAEA.

“The West should stop this useless game of coercion toward Iran that has no legitimacy,” says a Tehran University political science professor who advises the Iranian government on international issues. He added that a real “shift in world public opinion” in Iran’s favor was beginning to take place, despite negative press over last June’s presidential elections and the subsequent suppression of street demonstrations.

“China is making this bold statement today about no more sanctions because they are smart and they can see the new drift of public opinion in the international community that says ‘where’s the smoking gun?’ to support the sanctions or even war with Iran,” the professor said.

Whether or not world opinion is shifting, what is beyond doubt is that as of today, the proponents of sanctions on Iran, especially neo-conservatives such as John Bolton, who has set up the United Against Nuclear Iran, have failed to provide tangible evidence to back allegations of a “nuclearizing Iran”, and instead rely on disinformation routinely published by Israel-friendly media in the US and in Europe.

After the weekend meeting in New York, momentum for a more vigorous push to normalize Iran’s nuclear file is likely to be generated, putting the IAEA, as well as the UN, to new tests. Barring the unforeseen, pressure on the IAEA to take a stand in favor of normalizing Iran’s file will most likely grow. It will be a litmus test of the IAEA’s new director general to withstand the full force of contrary pressures. In his first press interview as the agency’s new head, Yukiya Amano said clearly that there was no evidence Iran was manufacturing nuclear weapons. His predecessor, Mohamed ElBaradei, has been making similar statements since leaving office last month.

For its part, Iran can take further proactive steps to assure the outside world of its peaceful intentions, such as promising to adopt the intrusive additional protocol of the NPT in return for the normalization of Iran’s file.

The Tehran University professor tells the author that some members of Iran’s parliament informed him they would be willing to pass legislation on both the additional protocol and the Iran-IAEA subsidiary agreement if world powers agreed to treat Iran “equally and respect Iran’s right have a nuclear-fuel cycle like other nations around the globe”. Logically, this should come as welcome news to some Western diplomats who seek a mutually satisfactory resolution of the Iranian nuclear standoff.

Yet, in the US nothing short of a complete dismantling of Iran’s enrichment facilities would satisfy hawkish politicians who take as an article of faith the argument that Iran is pushing ahead with a nuclear weapons program. The big question is whether or not President Barack Obama can withstand the pressure exerted by these and the wealth of pro-Israel lobbyists who want the heat kept high on Iran.

The evidence so far suggests that the mere fear of appearing weak or in “appeasement” toward Iran will keep Obama away from the only viable option that is not so far kept open on Iran, despite talk of having “all options on the table”. That option is the normalizing of Iran’s file in the absence of any evidence of militarization. That peaceful option needs to be brought into the open now that efforts at the UN to impose more sanctions have fizzled, thereby narrowing the range of options.

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran’s Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . For his Wikipedia entry, click here. His latest book, Reading In Iran Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge Publishing , October 23, 2008) is now available.