Pacts for the gullible



Zafar Hilaly

After grabbing the larger part of Kashmir by force Nehru, in mid-November 1949, out of the blue offered to conclude a no-war pact with Pakistan. Taken aback somewhat, Liaquat Ali Khan recovered his composure to tell Nehru that rather than a no-war declaration the best way of removing both the causes and the fear of war was to settle major outstanding disputes between the two countries. Even if disputes could not be settled, Liaquat Ali Khan added; let us agree on a procedure for settling them so that both countries would have entered into firm commitments which in due course would definitely lead to a settlement. Nehru was not interested.

President Ahmadinejad too must have needed a diversion to take his mind off his plateful of worries at home when he suggested to Mr Zardari last week that Iran and Pakistan enter into a mutual defence pact. Considering that the threat Iran faces is from America with which Pakistan is locked in alliance, such a pact is deader than a dodo. The Iranians should have thought of such an alliance earlier, that is, prior to the proxy war in which the two countries engaged over Afghanistan following the Soviet retreat in 1989. Rafsanjani, then president, scoffed at Benazir’s Bhutto’s offer, conveyed by me in 1995, to unite our policies on Afghanistan. As a result, the fratricidal inter-Mujahideen war continued until the Taliban emerged from the turmoil and, with the help of Pakistan, gained control of Kabul. The rest, as they say, is history.

We now have yet another weird pact in which Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan have pledged not to allow their respective territories to be used in activities detrimental to each other’s interests, precisely when all of them are up to their necks, wittingly or unwittingly, in doing so.

Iran, for example, has its own proxies in Afghanistan, including elements of the Karzai regime, such as Ismail Khan, who are paid to advance Iranian interests. Iran’s arming of the Northern Alliance forces is well known, so too the latter’s agenda, in particular their arming of militants for operations against Pakistan.

Besides, Iran and the Taliban are, and have remained, deeply antagonistic to each other. Neither it seems has made any move to heal their breech; not even a common enemy in the shape of the Americans has helped to bring them together. How equable relations will ever exist between Iran and an Afghanistan in which the shia averse Taliban also have more than a slice of power is difficult to envisage.

Of course, Iran has a legitimate right to complain that Pakistan’s virtually unpoliced border with Iran is a veritable thoroughfare for all kinds of criminals and spies, and so too the Afghan border with Balochistan whence, it is said, much of the American infiltration occurs which is directed against Iran; and, in the case of India, in stoking the fires of revolt in Baluchistan.

Two former Russian KGB agents described in vivid detail to Sandra Johnson in Moscow their many journeys across the border accompanying Indians and arms supplied by India to Baloch rebels. Although this portion of the border is virtually indefensible nevertheless Iran blames Pakistan, which technically is indeed responsible for thwarting intrusions of its territories by foreigners keen to attack Iran.

As for Afghanistan, under Karzai Kabul has encouraged India to set up an elaborate intelligence operation directed against Pakistan. Seldom, if ever, have there been a greater number of Indian intelligence operatives in Afghanistan earning their keep by funding terror attacks on Pakistan and secessionist armies such as that of the Bugti scions of Balochistan.

All of which makes a mockery of Manmohan Singh’s claim that India is opposed to such activities. Indeed, if India takes it upon itself to bomb what it considers are terrorist training facilities in Pakistan following another terror attack on India by groups seemingly operating out of Pakistan all Indian Consulates and sub offices in Afghanistan, ipso facto, become legitimate targets for similar raids for identical reasons by our own air force. Were this to happen Afghanistan would be as much to blame as India.

It is surprising that the Americans who, for all practical purposes, call the shots in Afghanistan have also encouraged India to establish her presence in the country. It was a callow move. It has ensured that Pakistan’s cooperation in the war against the Taliban will never be robust. Among those who matter it has generated a great deal of suspicion and more resentment than can possibly be off set by the gains that accrue to Washington. The fact remains that an unfriendly regime in Kabul dressed up to appear cooperative on America’s urging fools no one. Mr Zardari can have Karzai over as much as he likes and take him to play polo but it will have no effect. To well over half of Afghanistan and all of Pakistan Karzai is and remains an artful American stooge

As for Pakistan, large areas of our tribal areas are not in government control. Moreover, in North Waziristan, the Haqqani army holds sway and it is no secret that it uses the area as a base to wage war against the Afghan regime and the Americans. Taking them on, even if the willingness to do so were present, would require a vast redeployment of forces from the Indian border which seems unlikely given Delhi’s aggressive intent. Besides, by taking on the Afghan Taliban Pakistan would signal to the Pukhtoons of Afghanistan and Pakistan that an American-imposed minority dispensation composing Tajiks, Uzbeks, etc., is not only what Pakistan prefers but will fight for; a ridiculous proposition considering that Pakistan is a multi-ethnic state with 30 million Pakhtuns. In an identical quandary in Sri Lanka India abjured helping the legitimate government of Sri Lanka in overcoming Tamil secessionists. Demanding of Pakistan what India refused is typical of the intellectual duplicity for which India is deservedly notorious.

Unfortunately, the murderous Jaishes and Lashkars are also embedded in parts of Pakistan. Although at one time nourished and mentored by the Pakistani establishment they now consider Islamabad as hostile as America or India. And it would surprise no one if they launched yet another murderous attack against innocent Indians or, for that matter, Pakistanis who are a much easier target. Stopping them is no doubt Pakistan’s responsibility just as foiling their attacks would be that of India in cooperation with Pakistan or on its own. But, like that of Mumbai, the responsibility for an attack would be blamed by Delhi exclusively on Pakistan. By refusing to discuss how best these extremists can be prevented from attacking their targets India does Pakistan no favour, but nor does India help itself. The logic of India’s continued stiff arming of Pakistan escapes everyone except the hawks in Delhi.

Rather than enter into agreements that are really of no value except to deceive a gullible public into believing that matters will soon be well, all three countries, and India, would do much better to address their respective differences with each other bilaterally. Only when these have been resolved and a plan of action/ cooperation agreed will it be possible to conclude an agreement of the kind hyped in Islamabad earlier this week. Besides, no arrangement without an effective joint monitoring/investigative mechanism amounts to much. If the countries are simply to conclude yet another pious declaration the exercise is of little value. We already have enough of such declarations beginning with the UN Charter which also forbids the use of the territory of one state to attack another.

As for the Afghan foreign minister’s plea in Islamabad that Afghanistan be kept out of the quarrel between India and Pakistan, he should perhaps address it to his own president and the Americans who, knowing full well what India would do once it had a foothold in Afghanistan, nevertheless let India in.

A great deal of friendship is mere feigning which is what transpired in Islamabad earlier this week. All three foreign ministers would have been more gainfully employed elsewhere.

The writer is a former ambassador. Email: charles123it@hotmail.com

Leave a comment