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The Legatum Institute, a London-based think tank, has taken a look at our possible futures and presents us with a picture of a state which is Islamist but not Talibanised, and increasingly anti-American. The timeframe that is being considered is relatively short – one to three years – and the report talks of a subtle power shift from a secular pro-western society to one that is Islamist and anti-American. The predicate that this was ever a truly a secular society in anything other than an educated minority is almost certainly flawed — and has more to do with western wishful thinking than ground realities. Despite this, the report does appear to synthesise trends which we can identify. There is a rising influence of Islamist political parties, but whether they will ever parlay that into a durable vote-bank is another matter entirely, and religious parties with a single notable – and short-lived – exception have never polled well. There is also a rising tide of anti-Americanism that now has an increasing hold over the national mindset. This is going to make it increasingly difficult for America to deal with us and us to deal with them – hardly good news as the Afghan war spills over our borders. Militant groups are becoming increasingly adept at exploiting local grievances, particularly those relating to the dispensation of justice and the economy.
It is predicted that there is a risk that the pressure now being brought to bear on militant groups and political parties may cause them to fragment into yet more extreme pieces – which will be far harder to control or monitor. The report sees this possibility especially in south Punjab. Extremist groups already have a strong hold in some areas as they expand their activities into areas more properly the concern of the state – health and education. If the state fails in its social compact with the people and the people find essential services being provided by militant groups then it is not difficult to divine which way the wind will blow. |
Mohammed Abbasi 