By Asoka Bandarage

Given changing geopolitical alliances and the increasing importance of Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean, the outcome of the presidential elections on Tuesday will be decisive domestically, regionally and internationally.

Sri Lanka provided the prototype of 21st century terrorism. According to the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation, “The LTTE [Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam] perfected the use of suicide bombers, invented the suicide bomb belt, pioneered the use of women in suicide attacks … assassinated two world leaders [former Indian premier Rajiv Gandhi and Sri Lankan president Ranasinghe Premadasa] – the only terrorist organization to do so.”

Despite attempts by powerful actors in the international community to halt the final offensive, the Sri Lankan government last year defeated the LTTE. Whether Sri Lanka shapes the prototype of 21st century post-conflict reconciliation and development or enters a new era of internal political instability and external vulnerability depends heavily on the outcome of the elections.
The administration of President Mahinda Rajapaksa has been blamed for corruption, nepotism and violations of fundamental rights. These are serious charges, and it will require vigilance and pressure to maintain accountability, transparency and Sri Lanka’s hallowed democratic traditions. Still, the achievements of the Rajapaksa government cannot be overlooked. It won a 30-year-old war that had been commonly viewed as unwinnable. In so doing, it made the land safe and secure for all its people, providing a great opportunity to create long-term peace, reconciliation and development. Recent economic growth indicators alone show the enormous potential for Sri Lanka.

In contrast to the focus and determination of the current regime, the opposition coalition led by former army commander Sarath Fonseka does not present a unified vision or direction for change. Fonseka is the figurehead of a coalition made up of groups with fundamentally different ideologies and ambitions, such as the right-wing United National Party (UNP), the left-wing Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the LTTE proxy, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

The unity of this group comes from a common desire to gain control of the powerful executive presidency. Its power comes from financial and ideological support from influential international actors, including the LTTE’s diaspora network, non-governmental organizations, media and certain governments.

Although led by the former army commander, a victory for this coalition would only empower forces that earlier attempted to stop the military defeat of LTTE terrorism. Would its victory under a military officer renew the militarization of society? Would the empowerment of the TNA revive Tamil separatism? Would the arch enmity between the UNP and the JVP create confusion and instability? Would international actors step up their intervention, violating Sri Lanka’s sovereignty? Would the country and the region be thrown into a new era of chaos and intrigue?

Unfortunately, corruption and nepotism are rampant the world over. People in Sri Lanka are being mobilized against the Rajapaksa regime on the basis of charges of corruption and nepotism, most of them unproven. But the Sri Lankan electorate, even most of its English-speaking elite, are not well informed of the collusion of local and international forces behind the opposition candidate.

Their ignorance of the global dynamics of Sri Lankan politics may cost Sri Lanka a historic opportunity to forge a new, relatively independent path of evolution. Instead of becoming a prototype of 21st century post-conflict development and reconciliation, the strategically located island could become the theater for new forms of transnational activism and conflict. One can only hope that wisdom and welfare of ordinary Sri Lankans – Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims and others – will prevail in the voting.

Asoka Bandarage is a professor at Georgetown University, Washington DC and is the author of The Separatist Conflict in Sri Lanka: Terrorism, Ethnicity, Political Economy (Routledge 2009). The book is available at her website at http://www.bandarage.com