Dr Rashid Ahmad Khan

Resort to coercive diplomacy by India to get Pakistani compliance on the Mumbai terrorist attacks had already alienated Pakistani public opinion; the threatening statements from the Indian military and political leadership, and the treatment meted out to Pakistani cricketers in IPL selection led to the renewal of the old blame game between Islamabad and New Delhi

In a significant development,
Pakistan and India have moved to soon open bilateral talks at foreign secretaries’ level on an open-ended agenda that is also likely to cover the water issue and counter-terrorism. The move comes after more than 14 months of hiatus in relations between the two countries following the November 26, 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. The attacks led to unilateral suspension of the four year old Composite Dialogue process under which Islamabad and New Delhi had completed four rounds of bilateral talks for resolving their disputes, including the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir. Defying persistent calls from Pakistan as well as from the other leading members of the international community, the Indians had made the resumption of the Composite Dialogue process contingent on what they called credible progress by Pakistan on the prosecution of those suspected to be involved in the Mumbai attacks. Although no dramatic breakthrough is expected, the initiative is a welcome development for easing tension between the two countries, which was escalating due to a communication break and a spate of hostile statements from both sides.

The move has also come amidst the mix of hope and despair witnessed during the last more than one year, regarding the prospects of the revival of the peace process. It was believed, and even some leading sections of the Indian media shared this belief, that the conclusion of the 15th Lok Sabha elections in May last year would enable the new United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to restart talks with Pakistan; but the bellicose rhetoric by the Indian leaders foreshadowed the prospects, if there were any, for bringing the peace process again on track. Hopes were again rekindled when President Asif Ali Zardari met the Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in Yekaterinburg (Russia) in June 2009 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and discussed with him the prospects of resumption of the Composite Dialogue. As a follow up, Pakistan’s High Commissioner in India, Shahid Malik, met India’s Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon in New Delhi on June 23, 2009 to set a date for talks between the foreign secretaries of the two countries, but agreement on a new date could not be reached. However, the two countries continued their efforts in search of some meeting point to resume peace talks, which both sides considered essential for normalisation of their relations and resolution of their bilateral disputes. On July 11, Prime Minister Singh, on arriving back at New Delhi airport after attending the G-8 Conference in Rome, disclosed that following his meeting with President Zardari in Russia, the Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad, Sharat Sabharwal had met Pakistan’s ISI chief and several other high officials in Islamabad in a bid to prepare the ground for revival of peace talks. But these contacts seemed to have made little headway, as Pakistan accused India of dragging its feet on talks because of internal expediencies and the Indian leaders insisted that the atmosphere was not conducive for moving ahead.

The meeting between Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani and his Indian counterpart at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in July 2009 gave a real boost to these hopes, as the two leaders agreed in a joint statement to de-link the issue of terrorism from the Composite Dialogue and proposed a meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries during the UN General Assembly Annual Session in New York in September. Pakistan again called for the resumption of the Composite Dialogue, asserting that it was the only way to bring about peace and stability in South Asia by resolving bilateral disputes between Pakistan and India. This call was made by President Zardari in his address to the UN General Assembly Annual Session on September 25 in New York. Although there was no breakthrough on the resumption of the Composite Dialogue, the two countries continued to interact with each other in other areas. There was a meeting in New Delhi between the commerce secretaries of Pakistan and India early in September last year to discuss trade and commerce issues. Speaking about the bright prospects for bilateral trade between the two countries, Pakistan’s Commerce Secretary Suleman Ghani had emphasised the resumption of the Composite Dialogue, as it could take annual bilateral trade to $10 billion within 5-6 years from the present level of only $2 billion a year. As a further sign of goodwill, Pakistan, responding to a long-standing request by India, agreed to provide its rail and road facilities for trade with Afghanistan. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) to that effect was signed by Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim on September 30, 2009.

Despite these encouraging developments, however, the issue of the resumption of the Composite Dialogue remained unresolved. On the contrary, the relations between the two countries seemed to be sliding back to the pre-2004 phase of rising tensions and mounting hostility. There were skirmishes across the Line of Control (LoC) and clashes across the international border in Punjab; each side accusing the other of ‘unprovoked firing’. The repeated incidents of firing across the LoC were particularly worrying, because these incidents threatened to end the six year old ceasefire along the boundary in Kashmir, which was hailed as the most successful Confidence Building Measure (CBM) between Pakistan and India. The Indian Army Chief’s statement on his country’s strategic doctrine to develop the capability of fighting simultaneously on the Chinese and Pakistani fronts and the reaction from the Pakistani military leadership, added fuel to the fire in an already explosive situation. Resort to coercive diplomacy by India to get Pakistani compliance on the Mumbai terrorist attacks had already alienated Pakistani public opinion; the threatening statements from the Indian military and political leadership, and the treatment meted out to Pakistani cricketers in IPL selection led to the renewal of the old blame game between Islamabad and New Delhi. The elements in both countries who had never reconciled to peace and normalisation between Pakistan and India were quick to exploit the prevailing situation with their agenda of undermining any chance for peace between the two countries. Prime Minister Gilani was right when, early in September 2009, he said in a statement in Karachi that continued suspension of the Composite Dialogue between Pakistan and India could be exploited by the terrorists.

The decision by Pakistan and India to hold a meeting at foreign secretaries’ level is fundamentally motivated by a desire by the two countries to prevent a further downslide in their bilateral relations. The decision also shows, once again, that Indian coercive diplomacy against Pakistan cannot succeed. The constant pressure from the international community, which nervously saw Pakistan-India relations relapsing into acrimony and hostility, is also an important factor in pushing these South Asian neighbours to the negotiating table once again. The fast changing geo-political scenario in the region, particularly expected developments after the London Conference on Afghanistan, has also impelled Pakistan and India to revisit their positions vis-à-vis terrorism and peace talks.

The writer can be reached at rashid_khan192@yahoo.com