By Mohammed A Salih

WASHINGTON – As Iran celebrates the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution it is a country divided, with pro-government groups and Green Movement supporters presenting their own narratives of what the highly symbolic day means and what each group represents.

The political atmosphere is highly tense as both sides have called on their supporters to take to the streets to uphold what each sees as the real values and message of the revolution.

Each side presents itself as the true defender of the 1979 revolution and the other group as “deviants” – making it hard for them to find common ground on the roots of the current political turmoil and possible solutions.

On the one side, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has thus far strongly supported the government of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, which has branded the protesters as “outright anti-revolutionary individuals” or “individuals who out of ignorance and stubbornness do the job of anti-revolutionaries”.

Calling for unity, Khamenei said mass demonstrations around February 11 would “stun” what he called “the arrogant powers”, a code name mostly used for Western nations that Iran perceives as hostile.

On the other side, the prominent leaders of the so-called Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, as well as major reformist organizations, have asked their supporters to take part in rallies to demand “an end to despotism”, “full implementation of the constitution” and “paving the way to reforms”.

Protests have engulfed various parts of the country, especially the capital Tehran, since last June’s presidential elections, which were won by the incumbent Ahmadinejad, according to official results. That spurred a widespread backlash against what many perceived as massive vote fraud. Dozens of people died during the protests and hundreds of others have been detained and tried.

With renewed calls by Green Movement leaders for more protests,Iran’s elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and police commanders have vowed to crush any gatherings of anti-government protesters.

The commander of the Tehran division of the IRGC, Hossein Hamedani, warned protesters “we will not allow anything called green wave to show itself”. “We will strongly deal with any voice, color or movement that is not the voice of the Iranian people and the Islamic revolution,” Hamedani said.

The Islamic Republic has for the past three decades sponsored mass rallies every February 11 to commemorate the triumph of the revolution over the last shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, in 1979.

However, despite strong government warnings and a widespread crackdown on demonstrators and dissidents, the protesters have used government-organized rallies to defy the government and express their disgruntlement.

In the run-up to demonstrations expected this week, the government has launched a new crackdown, arresting and trying dozens of dissidents, including past protesters, journalists, human-rights activists and individuals with close ties to the leaders of the Green Movement.

The judiciary has issued at least nine death verdicts for some of the protesters. Sources close to the IRGC set Thursday as a “deadline” for the movement’s leaders to “repent” and “separate” from “anti-revolutionary” elements.

“The use of force against demonstrators will not resolve the government’s problem, that’s the government dilemma,” said Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. “If thedemonstrations turn violent, it will be another manifestation thatthe government has not been able to control the situation.”

Any major use of violence could lead to more public protests as Iranians mourn the dead for several weeks after their death.

Moreover, the nature of protesters’ demands appears to have considerably changed since the first days after the June 2009presidential elections. While the initial goal behind the Green Movement’s spontaneous rallies was annulling the results and holding a new round of voting, now some protesters are chanting slogans against the supreme leader and challenging the whole establishment.

Government supporters have used this as a sign of the protesters’ connection to foreign powers and the Iranian opposition abroad.

Recognizing this rising trend, Mousavi and Karoubi have called on protesters to avoid “anti-establishment” slogans, keep their demands within the limits of Iran’s constitution and to “maintain the identity” of the Green Movement.

In recent statements, both Karoubi and Mousavi have cited the release of political prisoners, freedom of the press and expression, respecting the right to assembly and passing a new election law as the main demands of the movement. Such disparities between what some of the protesters demand and what the official leadership of the movement says has led to questions about the direction of the movement.

“The Green Movement will go wherever the majority of the nation wants to go and I think the majority of the nation will go further than the government of Ahmadinejad,” said Mohsen Sazegara, an exiled Iranian dissident who was one of the original founders of the IRGC.

Sazegara, who was once a presidential candidate in Iran, has actively advocated mass protests through the Internet and frequently appears on the Persian service of the US government-funded Voice of America.

Sazegara, who calls himself a “soldier” of the Green Movement, doubts the constitution can meet protesters’ demands. “I believe the current constitution of the country has no democratic capacity and we need to change the constitution and have a referendum for people and see if they want the constitution,” he said.

As many conservatives and pro-government forces in Iran accuse the protesters of opposing the concept of religious government and the whole structure of the Islamic Republic. The challenge for senior reformists like Mousavi and Karoubi is to walk the fine line of staying within the structure’s limits and at the same time appearing as genuine reformists.

“The Green Movement is a multi-track, multi-objective, loose network of people with no organizational structure and no hierarchy. That’s why people like Mousavi and Karoubi have to operate on the basis of minimal demands, otherwise the coalition or movement will fall apart,” said Farhi.

(Inter Press Service)