By Shawn W Crispin

BANGKOK – Thailand’s United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) protest group has launched new anti-government street rallies in its latest push to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s year-old coalition government. The protests have sparked market fears of a chaotic repeat of last April’s UDD-led riots and could undo a 10-month period of relative political calm.

While UDD leaders claim to be struggling for democracy and the rights of the downtrodden, the mobilization comes conspicuously close to a Supreme Court verdict on February 26 that many expect will result in the state seizure of 76.6 billion baht (US$2.2 billion) worth of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s and his family’s frozen assets.
Thaksin has consistently denied that he funds the red shirt-wearing UDD, but the protest group has previously marched to the populist former leader’s orders, including his call last April from abroad – where he lives in self-imposed exile – for a “social revolution” to overthrow the government. The violence that ensued was put down by military force and saw a temporary surge in popular support for Abhisit’s government.

Some analysts note that the UDD has ever since failed to galvanize significant numbers and has more clearly morphed into a pressure group in pursuit of Thaksin’s interests than an organic grassroots movement pushing for democratic change. Many now view the UDD’s tilt towards violence as a tactical misstep, similar to the negative impact the rival yellow-garbed People’s Alliance for Democracy’s seizure of Bangkok’s two international airports in late 2008 had on its mass appeal.

Now with the bulk of Thaksin’s assets at risk of confiscation and the government intensifying efforts to extradite him from his exile base in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, officials fear that Thaksin’s more radical supporters, including known rogue elements in the military and police, may launch a campaign of violence in a bid to escalate the conflict and through brinksmanship embolden Thaksin’s calls for a royal pardon over his conviction on corruption charges.

Those concerns arise from recent anonymous grenade attacks on army headquarters and near Government House, the discovery of a C-4 laden explosive device near the Supreme Court and veiled threats by a rogue military official loyal to Thaksin that judges presiding over his assets case could be targeted for assassination. One senior Democrat party member recently expressed his concerns in discussions with a foreign mediator that the UDD is preparing to extend its fight to the provinces by organizing armed anti-government militias along the Cambodian border.

Mainstream UDD leaders maintain that they are committed to non-violence and have insinuated that the military and government have manufactured threats to justify a crackdown on their peaceful supporters. To guard against a repeat of last April’s violent UDD-led riots and a possible provincial insurrection, the government has in recent weeks steadily mobilized joint civilian and security force units across 38 provinces as well as in Bangkok.

Government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn told foreign journalists on Thursday that the government has made publicly available a 37-page document detailing how security forces will lawfully respond to any UDD move towards violence. The document, however, didn’t explain the need to preemptively move armored personnel carriers from the provinces to Bangkok, a redeployment that sparked coup rumors in the local media.

The UDD’s propagandists have claimed that the military is split along pro- and anti-Thaksin lines and that the national police force is largely allied to their cause. They have claimed that any violent suppression of their demonstrators will be met by a mutiny among sympathetic soldiers and cops. Top-ranking police were negligent in maintaining order during last April’s riots and Abhisit has reportedly worked closely with Police General Watcharapol Prasarnrajkit to identify and sideline officials known for lingering loyalties to Thaksin, himself a former police official. The upcoming rallies, some analysts suggest, will put to the test the effectiveness of those maneuvers.

While Thaksin has lured a number of retired military officials into his political camp, including most significantly former Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) deputy commander General Panlop Pinmanee, as well as also rogue 4th Cavalry army specialist Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, his influence among the active top brass has been systematically diminished through a series of reshuffles, special rotations and demotions since the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin.

Coup-maker and current army commander General Anupong Paochinda is widely believed by diplomats monitoring military affairs to have consolidated his position over top command positions, including those instrumental in past coups. They note that Anupong’s reshuffles have also disproportionately promoted his Queen’s Guard clique and, according to some military watchers, diluted Privy Council president and former army commander General Prem Tinsulanonda’s influence and enhanced that of Queen Sirikit over the forces.

Those reshuffles have also signaled a clear transition to deputy commander and known royalist General Prayuth Chan-ocha when Anupong must retire in October this year. Prayuth would be eligible to serve in the army’s top position for three consecutive years and, as a former Queen’s Guard commander, would likely be trusted in palace circles to manage security during the eventual royal succession.

Some military watchers suggest that exclusive promotion of Queen’s Guards over other military regiments has sown resentment among the rank and file, with the Special Forces seen as a particular source of discontent. That said, intra-military tensions over reshuffle lists are nothing new and are not expected to undermine unity as long as the widely revered 82-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej remains on the throne.

Bhumibol has, after a period of ill health, made a number of recent public appearances, including two televised addresses to local judges calling upon them to adjudicate with “righteousness”. The speeches, some analysts noted, were similar in tone and message to the one he delivered to judges in the run-up to the May 2007 court-ordered dissolution of Thaksin’s former Thai Rak Thai party.

Indeed, rifts are more evident in Thaksin’s political camp and these could widen if the upcoming Supreme Court verdict allows for the full seizure of his assets. According to one UDD insider, the protest group is split between a camp that desires to move away from Thaksin’s personality politics and emphasize more broadly democratic reform, and another led by those who have benefited politically and financially through their association with the former premier.

It’s unclear how Thaksin views the protest movement’s future in light of its waning popular pulling power. Notably, UDD top leaders publicly distanced themselves from Panlop’s recent call to establish a “people’s army” among UDD followers after an apparent meeting with Thaksin in Dubai. Meanwhile, the Thaksin-aligned Peua Thai opposition party is riven with infighting over the de facto leadership of rough-and-tumble machine politician and former police official Chalerm Yoobamrung.

Some Bangkok-based diplomats suggest that Thaksin’s post-coup reliance on discredited politicians and rogue military and police elements to push his agenda has further undermined his already questionable democratic credentials. That, they say, will conspire against any future Thaksin bid to portray government suppression of UDD protesters bent on violence as an anti-democratic crackdown deserving of international censure – as he attempted in the chaotic wake of last April’s riots.

The US, for one, was publicly critical of the UDD-led April riots and has recently told the group’s representatives that Washington puts diplomatic priority on law and order, according to a source familiar with the discussions. Underscoring Thaksin’s closing exile options, one Bangkok-based official notes that his US visa has expired and that he would likely be held in “secondary” confinement if he attempted to enter the country.

Other diplomats believe Thaksin’s interests would be better served by him fading into the political background after the upcoming verdict and resurrecting his appeal for a royal pardon after the eventual royal succession from Bhumibol to his heir-apparent son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. “But we all know that fading into the background is not exactly his style,” said the diplomat.

But even if Thaksin and his supporters elect to sustain their campaign of resistance in the landmark verdict’s aftermath, some here sense that Thailand’s political conversation has already shifted beyond Thaksin and towards a more genuine and inclusive discussion of the need for political and social reforms.

Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online’s Southeast Asia Editor. He may be reached at swcrispin@atimes.com.