Shafqat Mahmood

The short answer would be yes but there is still some ways to go. The hot war, if it can be called as such, has had some resounding successes. It is the ideological battle that promises to be a long struggle.

There is little doubt that military operations in Swat, Waziristan and now Bajaur have severely damaged the terrorist infrastructure. The militants’ leadership is on the run and there are credible reports that its command and control ability has suffered considerably.

This does not mean it is over. Most of the militants have melted into other places, particularly North Waziristan. They may have lost the ability to mount large-scale attacks or perpetrate widespread terrorism in the rest of the country. But, as the Taliban example in Afghanistan has shown, unless the population is completely won over, they will continue to have the ability to regroup and mount another challenge.

The military part of the campaign has received well-deserved praise. Our soldiers have shown daring, courage, discipline and a willingness to give the ultimate sacrifice. This has been due to the leadership at all levels of command, from the company to the highest echelons.

The planning of these operations has also been highly regarded. The American and NATO military commanders have used the Swat operation as a model for the recent campaign in Helmand area of Afghanistan. It may not have the same success because the political equation is different. But, the fact that our military operations are being emulated is a compliment to the Pakistani armed forces.

A particularly satisfying outcome has been the success of the Frontier Corps in Bajaur. The militants were well-entrenched there and controlled large swathes of territory. Getting them out was not easy. But, its real importance is the effectiveness shown by a paramilitary force.

If other such organisations, like the Frontier Constabulary, the agency levies and khasadars, start to perform well, it will hugely relieve the burden on the mainstream armed forces. And, if over time, the normal police and other civil institutions of the state start to become effective, that would be real victory.

The reason for this is simple. The regular armed forces are literally the last resort against any civil disturbance, militancy or terrorism. The moment they are called in to restore order, it is an admission of failure of all other state institutions. If the last resort becomes the first, it is a governance catastrophe.

Two aspects are critical for success in the militancy-infested areas. One, winning over the people. There are many facets to this but most important are security, infrastructure development and the creation of livelihoods. The second critical benchmark is the complete restoration of the normal structures of civil administration.

In these two areas the armed forces do have a role but the real challenge is for the federal and provincial governments. Some development projects have been initiated by the army in South Waziristan because it is too soon for the civil administration to function effectively over there.

But, this is a stopgap measure. It is critically important for the political governments to move in, establish effective civil governance, and take charge of resettlement, security, infrastructure development and economic opportunity creation. Unless this is effectively done, the military success will remain shaky.

The federal and provincial governments also have a huge challenge in fighting the ideological battle and stopping the spread of militancy to other parts of the country. It is this area that is weak. Sectarian and other radical groups keep showing their presence through rioting and acts of violence.

There seems to be no cohesive national plan to combat this kind of radicalisation. It has to be national because the federal and provincial authorities have to coordinate and be on the same page if it is to be effective.

It would have to include short- and long-term measures. An immediate need is to come down heavily on rioting and acts of violence. What happened over Eid Milad-un-Nabi in Faisalabad is simply not acceptable. If television cameras were on hand to record acts of vandalism, looting, burning of mosques and desecration of sacred documents, where were the police?

And the aftermath is equally important for demonstration purposes. Not only the offenders have to be arrested but brought quickly to trial so that a message goes out that this sort of thing will not be tolerated.

An important step forward in curbing such kind of interdenominational eruptions is to show zero tolerance for breaches of law. This among other things includes ensuring that loudspeakers are not misused. If the law says that they are to be used only for Azan and Khutba on Friday, it must be enforced. And, if anybody preaches sectarian or religious hatred, such people must be dealt with a visibly heavy hand.

Anytime law is strictly enforced, it does cause a reaction, but it is better to face radicalisation at an early stage than to fight pitched battles with militancy later through the armed forces. An important reason for the deterioration of the situation in Swat and other places in FATA and NWFP is that hate-filled FM radio broadcasts and other minor violations of the law were ignored.

Zero tolerance is a very important principle of law enforcement. Unfortunately, our officialdom has shown great timidity in imposing it. The normal reaction is to let things be because no official wants too much trouble on his or her watch. This encourages the offenders because they keep testing the boundaries of acceptability and ultimately instigate serious acts of violence. The Faisalabad incident is an example of this.

Over the long term of course no serious ideological change can be brought about without proper education. The state has been woeful in neglecting this critical area and the slack has been taken up by madressahs. In essence, there is nothing wrong with madressah education but good institutions have been overshadowed by scoundrels and charlatans posing as religious teachers and setting up hate academies.

Changing this equation is not easy. In these times of scarce resources and competing interests, allocating enough resources to improve the state education system would be difficult. But, there is very little choice. Education is good per se and a primary responsibility of the state, but in our case it is a critical front in the fight against radicalisation and militancy.

It is also important for the federal government to grit its teeth, propose changes in the syllabi of religious schools, and then enforce them. Again there is bound to be reaction but if all the political parties and their governments in the federation and provinces show determination, it can be done.

It will take a lot to defeat militancy. Military action is only a small part of a national strategy to combat it. It is time for the political leadership to make a move in this direction.

Email: shafqatmd@gmail.com