How it may have been done differently —Shahzad Chaudhry

Both India and Pakistan today are at the verge of being water-stressed, at least figuratively. But that will become real very soon if we remain hostage to viewing our problems in a historical perspective. Much more than the political, territorial and security aspects, our civilisational existence is at stake

A done deal is a done deal, and
sulking over it post-facto does not pay much. But then India-Pakistan matters are hardly ever the last word that may seem to have been spoken. The foreign secretaries’ day-long parley in Delhi was one such event. Salman Bashir, after having said that he had invited the Indian foreign secretary to Islamabad for a follow-up, countered his own statement the next day by declaring that no such invitation was proffered. Nirupama Rao, the Indian foreign secretary — Salman’s two-year long colleague in Beijing — iterated that the two foreign secretaries only promised to keep in touch. So much for the bonhomie of having served at the same station!

Was enough homework done on both sides before taking this most crucial step of resuming the dialogue? Did our mission in Delhi, which was in constant touch with the leaderships on both sides, convey to their capital the likely Indian stance at the dialogue, which could have been easily surmised to centre on terrorism? Was the mission overly enthusiastic to somehow enable a coming together of the foreign secretaries without ensuring any likelihood of a positive result, perhaps only to have shown some activity at their end? Keep in mind that envoys on contract are up for a review of their contract every year, and our man in Delhi is now becoming due for his third extension. Most importantly, did our Foreign Office have the flexibility to exercise the requisite initiative to cause a dialogue to be sustained by proposing a different, more innovative and engaging route to raising common stakes and interests for both sides beyond the now dead and beaten track of the need for peace? Was handing over a dossier of complaints on the water issue the only Pakistani strategy to resuscitate the dormant composite dialogue?

Here is how our next parleys may be initiated. Before a foreign secretary embarks on another bilateral jaunt, he may write to his counterpart the following epistle: “Excellency, in our engagement in Delhi, we did well to remind our countrymen of the respective positions that we two hold on various issues of bilateral concern. Going by the great support that we both elicited from our political leaders, particularly from the extreme right, we may have saved our skin by avoiding any initiative, but we got blasted for lack of innovation and enterprise, and for hiding behind studied dourness of demeanour for fear of exposing any vulnerability.

“We do however know that history beckons and our future generations call for better sense; with some extraordinary newness generally considered beyond our pale, we may just be able to leave some good as a legacy. Excellency, in our various interactions in Beijing we had spent quite some time discussing the need to move away from the futility of historical and entrenched positions that our two sides have held as mental blockades to fresher thought and innovation. It is time we made the change that we talked about so often.

“Our region is beset with the biggest threat of a worsening environment that is likely to wipe out our future generations. I say this, keeping in mind that two-thirds of our populations live below the relational margin of two dollars a day. Poverty has an inexorable linkage with disease, and together these become the deadliest agents of civilisational extinction. The deteriorating environment and global climatic change phenomenon will affect weaker nations much more, since they even today stand most vulnerable; their resilience against such shocks will be almost be non-existent. Climatic variations directly impact variations in rainfall patterns causing cyclical events of drought and flooding, both ill timed for our very largely agrarian societies and economies. Cropping patterns, their yields and quality of product all will suffer hugely, reinforcing poverty. Excellency, poor, hungry and sick people are difficult to contain. They do not recognise borders. To avoid extinction, they will move to the areas where food exists. Large-scale migrations within our larger South Asian region will become a reality. The rampage that such hordes may go on will become destructive much more than any disruption caused by the likes of terrorism and its offshoots; trends in lawlessness and vigilantism will be unleashed with destructive consequences. Our civilisations will simply not remain the way we know them today. You will agree that the consequence of the environment bomb is deadlier than the impact of the nuclear bomb and needs our immediate attention.

“Excellency, just as our troubles, the answers to our newer dilemmas too lie in Kashmir, not in divvying it up for spoils but for the need to evolve, develop and put in place a joint cooperative effort to secure our future civilisations and the future of our children. Kashmir is the source of the waters that will keep our societies going. Both our nations today are at the verge of being water-stressed, at least figuratively. But that will become real very soon if we remain hostage to viewing our problems in a historical perspective. Much more than the political, territorial and security aspects, our civilisational existence is at stake. Excellency, we need to put in place a joint group of water, environmental and conservation experts from within India, Pakistan and both sides of Kashmir, if required, under the leadership of an agreed nominee of the World Bank for some initial period, which shall take on the task of studying, monitoring, preserving and conserving our joint sources of water in the glaciated north of our combined northern regions. They will also take on the crucial role of controlling and managing the watershed and its disruption under the weight of population movement and expansion; they will need to control its preservation. They should develop a transparent system of monitoring and recording rainfall and stream water inflows into larger river bodies to ensure efficient distribution according to the Indus Waters Treaty; they will also be primarily responsible to raise awareness and put into place remedial measures for conservation of water and eliminating water waste. By doing the water thing, we will be able to mitigate our energy deficiencies too.

“As we do this, and are able to sufficiently convince our principals to look anew at the nature of problems that afflict our joint survival, we may just be able to comprehend the urgency to work together towards the benefit of our common stakes. Competitiveness will be replaced with cooperativeness. Kashmir will cease to be a problem. It will become the solution to our future security. Politics will subsume in the larger battle of economic and physical survival. The people of Kashmir will become the principal agents of enabling the politico-social resilience of South Asia. We may just be able to turn the corner and create a success story with an alternate paradigm of cooperative engagement, forever eliminating the litany of conflict from our conjoined existence.

“Shall we give it a try?”

Shahzad Chaudhry is a retired air vice marshal and a former ambassador