Perceptions of long-term security —Dr Mubashir Hasan

The ruling elites of Pakistan and India, busy as they are in acquiring the capabilities of high-tech warfare techniques of future wars and armed as they are with nuclear weapons, stand on the brink of courting disaster after disaster through pursuing their present policies

Increasing Chinese economic power and its growing influence in the Third World countries; simultaneously, the decreasing clout of the US in South and Southwest Asia shall pose serious challenges for peace, security and freedom for the nations of the subcontinent in times to come. Over the long term, China’s huge dependence upon exports to and imports from foreign markets is destined to inculcate in its foreign policy imperial characteristics with sharpened rivalries with the other leader of imperial powers — the US. Pakistan and India are seriously threatened by the prospect of getting involved in big power rivalries and pay a heavy price as they did in the Cold War period. Yet, the goal of normalisation of relations still seems distant and the threat of getting involved in yet another big power rivalry looms large over our heads.

Through the period of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, Pakistan’s ruling elite decided to rely on assistance from the US, in view of the threat it perceived from the ruling elite of India. On its part, the ruling elite of India, to meet the threat it perceived from the ruling elite of Pakistan, which was armed by the US and in later years by China, looked towards the Soviet Union for assistance.

To strengthen itself militarily and economically against the threat it perceived from the ruling elite of India, the Pakistani elite surrendered chunks of its national sovereignty by allowing the US to build military bases on Pakistan’s soil and to fly spy planes over the Soviet Union from the Peshawar Air Force base. Barring issues such as those pertaining to Muslim countries, Palestine and China, Pakistan served the US as a pawn in international forums such as the UN and its agencies. It did not even condemn the Anglo-French invasion of Egypt. It earned the reputation of a client state of the US.

India became a huge purchaser of arms and capital goods from the Soviet Union and rendered crucial political support to the Soviet Union on big international issues such as that of the infamous Soviet intervention in Hungry. On its part, the Soviet Union gave firm support to India on the Kashmir dispute, an issue of grave importance to India and Pakistan.

During the period of the Cold War, Pakistan and India fought three wars. By indulging in the rivalries of the superpowers the nations of the Subcontinent Pakistan and India had to indulge in a long and ruinous arms race against each other. By selling arms and by getting political support in international political forums of the world, the superpowers hugely benefited in economic, political and strategic fields from the rivalry of our two nations.

However, by taking sides in the confrontation between the Soviet Union and the US, our elites inflicted enormous damage to the economies of their own countries. Billions and billions of rupees were diverted from welfare and nation building activities towards preparations to wage wars. In addition, they inflicted long lasting, irreversible and immeasurable damage and suffering on the psyche of their two peoples. The seeds of intolerance and hatred on political, ethnic, national and religious lines flowered as never before in history and which make may take generations to erase.

The end of the Cold War brought a sigh of relief to the tormented Subcontinent. From 1989 onwards, streams of peace loving and peace demanding activists, intellectuals and parliamentarians started flowing from one country to another. In February 1999, Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Atal Bihari Vajpayee held a historic meeting at Lahore. Notwithstanding the Kargil war, President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee met again at Agra. Again, notwithstanding the stalemate at Agra, General Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are reported to have substantially narrowed their differences on the solution of the Kashmir issue. The end of the tensions between the two neighbours seemed to be coming to an end.

Yet the goal of the normalisation of relations still remains distant and the threat of getting involved in yet another big power rivalry looms large over the heads of the peoples of the Subcontinent. Both the US and China are making unprecedented efforts to get closer to India and Pakistan respectively.

In the years to come, if Pakistan were to decide to rely more and more on China, as it once sought to rely on the US, India shall have to decide to get nearer and nearer to the US to offset its threat perceptions with respect to China. Should we allow such an unfortunate situation to emerge, the Subcontinent is destined to suffer as a victim of the rivalry of foreign powers in yet another century.

The ruling elites of Pakistan and India, busy as they are in acquiring the capabilities of high-tech warfare techniques of future wars and armed as they are with nuclear weapons, stand on the brink of courting disaster after disaster through pursuing their present policies. Being slaves of the strong forces of the status quo within their own countries, it is unlikely that the two governments are capable, through bilateral negotiations and agreement, of striking a fresh trail to avoid getting involved in the foreseeable rivalries of China and the US.

As one important measure to avoid getting into yet another Cold War, Pakistan and India need to build a new alliance of the nations of the Subcontinent comprising, to begin with, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran and later to be joined by Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. The principal objectives of the alliances should be:

* Economic cooperation to make each country individually and the region collectively strong;

* Working towards evacuation of foreign troops, paramilitary and intelligence forces from the countries of the alliance;

* Offering no military and strategic assistance to the US which may be against the security of China and similarly offering no military and strategic assistance to China against the security of the US;

* Working towards a world free of nuclear armaments;

* Working towards keeping the Indian Ocean and its allied seas free of international naval fleets; and

* Strictly adhering to the provisions of the UN Charter regarding non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of each country of the alliance.

The writer can be reached at mh1@lhr.comsats.net.pk