The duel of the chancellors


By Irfan Husain
dawn.com

Widely respected as the man who warned about the coming recession five years ago, Vince Cable spoke bluntly and credibly about the state of the British economy, and of the pain ahead. –Photo by Reuters

An institution unique to British parliamentary democracy is the system of the shadow cabinet. The opposition appoints members to positions they can expect to get once their party is in power, and are designated ‘shadow chancellor’, ‘shadow foreign secretary’, etc. These men and women then represent their party in their areas, and are regularly briefed by state officials. Thus, the shadow chancellor puts forth his party’s position on the economy, and cross-examines the current chancellor on the floor of the House. Similarly, the shadow foreign secretary speaks on foreign affairs on behalf of his party, and so on.

This system, apart from allowing the party to speak with one voice, also prepares the shadow cabinet for assuming authority when the opposition achieves power. The strength of the system was on display last (Monday) night when Channel 4 aired a live debate between Alistair Darling, the Labour Chancellor, Vince Cable and George Osborne, the shadow chancellors for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives respectively. Unlike the unruly televised debates we are used to in Pakistan, this one was disciplined and intelligent.

Moderated by Krishnan Guru-Murthy, the debate was crisp and lively, with each participant making a brief statement before taking questions from the floor. There was also an animated exchange between the three men that revealed the different approaches their respective parties would take to tackle the ongoing economic crisis. Darling had the uphill task of convincing the audience that after 13 years in power, Labour now had the solutions to many of the problems it had created.

Osborne, speaking for the Conservatives, widely regarded as the party of the rich, was unconvincing when he argued that despite cutting public spending drastically, spending on health would actually increase.

People still remember with horror the painful cuts imposed by Margaret Thatcher three decades ago.

Most observers agree that Vince Cable turned in the best performance. Widely respected as the man who warned about the coming recession five years ago, he spoke bluntly and credibly about the state of the British economy, and of the pain ahead.

In his closing statement, he appealed to the public to remember that it was Labour policies that had brought the country to its present economic slump, and before them, it was the Conservative Party that had gutted British manufacturing, and wasted the revenues from North Sea oil. Against this track record, it was the Liberal Democrats who had basically got it right, and who now offered the best way out of the mess created by the two major parties.

Although the date for the elections has not been officially announced, they are widely expected to be held on May 6, around a month before the end of this government’s maximum five-year tenure. And while nobody thinks the Lib Dems will win, their steady 20 per cent support base might well ensure them a key role after the general elections. When I left Britain last October, the bookmakers and the pundits had the Conservatives as the front-runners with a solid 10 per cent-15 per cent lead over Labour. Now, however, the picture has changed completely, with the gap narrowing to 5 per cent-10 per cent depending on which poll you consult.

This could well result in a hung parliament, with neither party gaining a clear majority. While the Lib Dems have said they would not consider going into a coalition with either party, politics can produce strange bedfellows. Thus far, they have avoided compromising on principles, but who knows what the future holds. This is the party that firmly opposed the Iraq war when both Labour and the Tories led the country into a needless conflict.

Returning to a cold and wet England after nearly six months in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, I find few signs of an election. Most people despair of either party’s ability to lead them out of the economic crisis that has blighted so many lives.

The newspapers are full of doom and gloom. Indeed, out of the major economies, Britain’s recovery has been the slowest. For years, the Brits lectured France and Germany about the merits of their barely-regulated system, with banks posting enormous profits, and sharing obscene bonuses. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and the prophets of laissez-faire economics have to endure calls for more regulations from across the Channel.

Labour finds itself in a very tight spot: with elections looming, the government cannot afford to make the necessary cuts in public spending now. But this opens them up to charges of playing politics with the economy. They claim to have identified areas where they can make ‘efficiency cuts’ worth 11 billion pounds. But as Osborne demanded to know in the Channel 4 debate, why isn’t the government making the cuts straight away?

It is always easier to claim that extra funds will come from some notional areas of waste, rather than eliminating services the public is used to. Once in power, it becomes more expedient to allow the deficit to grow, rather than inflicting politically damaging reductions in sensitive areas like health, defence and education. But currently, the deficit stands at 167 billion pounds, an unprecedented and unsustainable gap between income and expenditure. If things go on this way, there is every chance of Britain being downgraded in the bond market, causing an increase in the interest it has to pay on its vast borrowings.

Gradually, I expect the lacklustre campaign to heat up. If I had the vote, I would have supported the Lib Dems, even if that meant a wasted vote in Devizes, a solidly Conservative constituency. Meanwhile, spring is in the air, with new leaves and flowers making their tentative appearance against barren fields. Soon, the surrounding countryside will be ablaze with life and greenery. Already, Puffin, our Jack Russell terrier, is chasing the squirrels in our garden with his usual enthusiasm and energy. Maybe one day, he will actually manage to catch one…

Tailpiece: I attended the second and last evening of the seventh All Pakistan Music Conference at the Indus Valley School, and was very glad I did. A young sitar player called Turab Ali gave a dazzling performance that blew the audience away. Playing the raga Rageshri, the 19-year-old displayed skills and maturity far beyond his years. Improvising with great self-confidence and fluency, he mesmerised the knowledgeable audience.

During my all-too-brief stay in Pakistan, I was greatly heartened to see so much cultural activity that dispelled the earlier prophecies of Pakistan being on the verge of collapse.

The arts can do as much to counter the Taliban as military might.

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