Comment: Together making a greater mess —Zafar Hilaly

While we have no right to object to greater Indian influence in Afghanistan, what we justifiably find intolerable is the use that India makes of its hold over Karzai to belittle Pakistan, fund Baloch insurgents who enjoy a safe haven in Afghanistan and create for our military the awful prospect of a two-front threat

George W Bush will soon be penning his memoirs. The chapter on Afghanistan should not take long. Five Latin words would suffice, namely, veni (I came), vidi (I saw), vincit (I prevailed) and hesitat (I dithered). And if one added flevit (I fled), it being Obama’s contribution, they would, at a glance, give the reader a sense of the US’s policy on Afghanistan since 2001.

The manner of the US’s departure will depend, to some extent, on the amount of cooperation that the US obtains from Pakistan. Ordinarily, Pakistan would have balked at pulling the US’s chestnuts out of the fire. Turkey declined to play a similar role in Iraq. But so dismally has Pakistan managed its affairs that it is economically broke, internally at war with extremists and externally threatened by India. Pakistan badly needs a breathing space to get its house in order and to ward off India. Hence, in return for lucre, weapons and American diplomatic support, Pakistan has pledged to help the US extricate itself from the Afghan quagmire.

Oddly, rather than complain at being forced by our straitened circumstances to help the US wash its soiled reputation, we appear to welcome, nay relish, the prospect, forgetting that nothing we say or do will count with the Afghan Taliban because it never did, for long anyway. And that the Afghan Taliban are the murderous progenitors of the Pakistani Taliban with whom we are now engaged in a desperate no-holds-barred fight to the finish within Pakistan. And, of course, forgetting the one lesson that history teaches — that in Afghanistan power, like water, must be allowed to find its own level before durable peace can return.

But even if we are successful in getting the Taliban to the table, who will guarantee that when they renege from the agreement, which they will, they can be made accountable? And how does a speedy American exit which, our foreign minister says, is “premature and sends the wrong signals”, benefit Pakistan? Stupidity does not consist in being without ideas. Stupidity consists in having lots of ideas but stupid ones.

Pakistan is cock-a-hoop having got the better of India at the Istanbul and London parleys on Afghanistan. For India, to be actually excluded from the talks, must have been a humiliating experience. Its arrogance and its condescending mien took a huge knock. Foreign Minister SM Krishna tried to ride the blow by dissembling, claiming that India too favoured negotiations with the Taliban. Such a patent lie did nothing for him or India.

Nevertheless, why rub it in. India is a regional power and Pakistan can do nothing to curb its rise. Nor can we counter it by increasing our military capability endlessly because that, as we concede, is impossible. “We do not intend to be sucked into an arms race with India,” says the foreign minister. Besides, abuse of India is self-defeating. Merely by upping the level of its forces on the border, India can severely curtail our efforts against terrorism. And by delaying the solution to important bilateral disputes, India has already deflected our attention from more pressing national problems. Hence, improving relations with India must remain an important goal and constantly carping at India hardly helps to create a propitious atmosphere for negotiations.

While we have no right to object to greater Indian influence in Afghanistan, what we justifiably find intolerable is the use that India makes of its hold over Karzai to belittle Pakistan, fund Baloch insurgents who enjoy a safe haven in Afghanistan and create for our military the awful prospect of a two-front threat. But then, India is a creature of habit. When it sees a belt, it cannot resist the temptation to hit below it.

Just the other day, with no proof on offer, an Indian spokesman in Kabul accused Pakistan of being responsible for the avowedly Taliban-mounted raid against the Indians in Kabul. He added, quite gratuitously, that the US is making efforts to “outsource peace and stability to a country [Pakistan] that is responsible for causing this mess in Afghanistan”. Apart from revealing a startling ignorance of the real reasons for the “mess in Afghanistan”, such sentiments only fortify the belief in Pakistan that while a benign Indian presence in Afghanistan is of no consequence, a malign one is insufferable.

Mindless hostility born of suspicion and paranoia does not behove India or Pakistan. Their caterwauling has now gone on for six decades. It is not only tiresome but dangerous. It is time, as Jack Kennedy said, “Not to fix the blame for the past but rather to fix the course for the future.”

In this endeavour the Americans cannot help. Bleating that they should does nothing. It merely shames Pakistan. Nor are the Americans up to it. Their record is abysmal. Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan are testimony to American idiocy. Besides, American policy is incoherent. While campaigning before the 2008 presidential elections, Obama asserted that Pakistan would have to be stabilised before Afghanistan could be stabilised. How that goal can be better achieved by spending $ 100 billion annually in Afghanistan and only $ 1.5 billion on Pakistan has yet to be explained.

Similarly, if for no other reason than that his roommate was a Pakistani, Obama must have known of the friction that exists between India and Pakistan and how fixated Pakistan is on the threat emanating from India. But what does Obama do? He lets his satrap Karzai inveigle India to Afghanistan and, in return for some road building contracts, allows India to set up an intelligence network meant to destabilise and militarily outflank Pakistan. No wonder 85 percent of Pakistanis view the US as a potential enemy rather than a trusted friend.

That is not to suggest that Pakistan’s leaders are any wiser. The current crop is a strange lot. And those waiting in the wings are no better either. They seek not advice but only corroboration, which is why they are surrounded by yea-sayers. They claim they have an open mind; yes, so open that nothing is retained, ideas simply pass through them.

Actually, the American and Pakistan leaderships are a lethal brew, one lacking sense and the other forced to talk nonsense to be heard. As for India, it is programmed by nature to ferment trouble for Pakistan. Plus la change, plus la meme chose.

The writer is a former ambassador. He can be reached at charles123it@hotmail.com