Last week, I had written off the Liberal Democrats as rank 250-1 outsiders in UK’s general election scheduled for 6 May. How wrong I was. But I was in good company: hundreds of pundits in Britain and around the world had predicted this was going to be a one-horse race, with the Conservatives poised to gain the biggest block of seats in the next parliament. The only element of suspense lay in the question whether they would get an outright majority, or there would be a hung parliament, with neither Labour nor the Conservatives winning the 326 seats needed to form a government.

The events of the last few days have proved yet again that a week in politics can be a lifetime. Suddenly, there is excitement in the air, and an election that was putting the electorate to sleep has come to life. Young people are registering in droves, and many voters who had declared that they would stay at home on Election Day are now clear that they will vote for the Liberal Democrats.

The turning point of the campaign was last Thursday’s televised debate that pitted the leaders of the three largest parties against each other. Surprisingly, this was the first such debate ever held. Considering that the Americans had their first TV debate between presidential hopefuls Richard Nixon and John Kennedy back in 1960, the British have been slow to join the rest of the advanced democracies in establishing this tradition.

In retrospect, it is easy to see why David Cameron, the Tory leader, probably wishes he hadn’t agreed: Nick Clegg turned in a performance that had his rivals reeling. In a poll taken immediately after the 90-minute debate, a majority of viewers declared the Lib Dem leader the winner. Subsequent opinion polls have confirmed this view: the latest Guardian/ICM survey shows the Conservatives at 33 per cent (down four points); the Liberal Democrats up 10 points at 30 per cent; and Labour down three at 28 per cent. One poll even showed the Lib Dems marginally ahead of the Tories.

These numbers indicate a remarkable turnaround in public opinion. One explanation lies in the fact that the TV debate was the first opportunity the Lib Dems have had to put their case before the public: ignored by the media, and often heckled by Labour and Tory members in Parliament, they were long ignored as poor distant cousins. In the debate, Nick Clegg came across as young, articulate and very intelligent. Time and again, he pilloried his rivals as representing the two major parties that had taken turns running and ruining Britain.

Gordon Brown tried desperately to gang up with Clegg in cornering the Tory leader, saying: “I agree with Nick” no less than seven times in the debate. But the Lib Dem leader shrugged off this unwanted embrace, saying of both major parties: “The more they disagree with each other, the more they sound the same.”

This tactic of declaring ‘a plague on both their houses’ has resounded deeply with the electorate. Their discontent with both major parties was reflected in the fact that before the debate, no less than 53 per cent of intending voters declared they wanted a hung parliament.

Ironically, the British ‘first-past-the-post’ voting system means that this surge in support for the Lib Dems could well mean that Labour might emerge with the biggest number of seats. For years, the demand for a proportional voting structure has echoed among the smaller parties whose voices have been ignored due to the vagaries of the system. If the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour, and still emerge with the smallest number of seats, this electoral anomaly would cause the demand for reform to be redoubled, and would undoubtedly receive widespread support from a disgruntled electorate.

Although David Cameron has urged voters to give his party a clear mandate, it is now fairly certain that no party will obtain a majority. At around 30 per cent support, each will have to consider the very real possibility of forming a coalition government. Next Thursday’s debate on foreign affairs will give Clegg the opportunity to shine again. Speaking five languages, married to a Spanish woman, and having worked in Brussels for years, he is far more knowledgeable about Europe than either of his rivals. However, the last debate is about the economy, and will give Brown a chance to show that in this period of economic uncertainty, Britain would be better off with somebody with his experience.

On the surface, it would appear that the Lib Dems and Labour, both being centre-left parties, would be natural partners in a coalition. However, Clegg would be reluctant to enter into a partnership with a party that has been tainted after 13 years in power. In the past, he has had major differences with the government over issues like the Iraq war, which the Lib Dems vigorously opposed. They are also against the enormous resources about to be committed to the Trident nuclear missile system. At a hundred billion pounds spread over several years, Clegg maintains that Britain cannot afford this outlay, and should explore the possibility of sharing a deterrent with France. He is being attacked by both Labour and the Tories for wanting to weaken Britain’s defences, and losing its seat on the UN Security Council.

One aspect of leadership in which Clegg is far ahead of his rivals is honesty. When asked which party leader relies more on spin than on substance, only 13 per cent of those polled by the Guardian named Clegg, while Cameron was at 44 per cent, and Brown at 29 per cent. While this may not make Clegg the next PM, it does at least put him in the frame.

While Britain waits impatiently for the next debate, people here are getting fed up with the air traffic ban imposed due to nearly a week of volcanic ash over much of Western Europe. Driving past Heathrow, it felt weird not to see several jetliners landing and taking off. On clear days such as we have been having recently, it is wonderful not to have wispy contrails overhead. With 200,000 Brits stuck on the mainland, daily images of stranded tourists at airports and ferry ports fill TV screens every day.

Just over a fortnight from now, Brits will vote for a new government. It would be ironic if the Lib Dem surge produces a fourth Labour government in a row. Instead of the change they seem to desire, the electorate will get more of the same.