An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2010


2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007
View U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan in a larger map
Click each pin to see the details of a reported strike. The red border represents the extent of Pakistan’s tribal regions in the northwest of the country. Red pin=2004-2007; Pink pin=2008; Dark blue pin=2009; (Purple pin=Bush in 2009); Light blue pin=2010

This research was last updated on May 3, 2010. For a full analysis of the repercussions and results of U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, please click here for “The Year of the Drone,” by Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, February 24, 2010.

2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007

The research on these pages, which we have created in a good faith effort to be as transparent as possible with our sources and analysis and will be updated regularly, draws only on accounts from reliable media organizations with deep reporting capabilities in Pakistan, including the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, accounts by major news services and networks—the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, CNN, and the BBC—and reports in the leading English-language newspapers in Pakistan—the Daily Times, Dawn, and the News—as well as those from Geo TV, the largest independent Pakistani television network.

Our study shows that the 129 reported drone strikes in northwest Pakistan, including 34 in 2010, from 2004 to the present have killed approximately between 898 and 1,336 individuals, of whom around 609 to 958 were described as militants in reliable press accounts. Thus, the true civilian fatality rate since 2004 according to our analysis is approximately 30 percent.

We have also constructed a map, based on the same reliable press accounts and publicly available maps, of the estimated location of each drone strike. Click each pin in the online version to see the details of a reported strike; the red border represents the extent of Pakistan’s tribal regions in the northwest of the country. And while we are not professional cartographers, and Google Maps is at times incomplete or imperfect, this map gives our best approximations of the locations and details of each reported drone strike since 2004.

This study carries a Creative Commons license, which permits re-use of New America content when proper attribution is provided. Please click here for conditions of use, and when citing please attribute to Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann’s drones database at the New America Foundation.

Estimated Total Deaths from U.S. Predator Strikes in Pakistan, 2004 – 2010

Deaths (low) Deaths (high)
2010* 164 284
2009 372 632
2008 275 310
2004-2007 87 109
Total 898 1,336

*Through May 3, 2010

Estimated Militant Deaths from U.S. Predator Strikes in Pakistan 2004 – 2010

Deaths (low) Deaths (high)
2010* 143 247
2009 284 479
2008 105 130
2004-2007 77 100
Total 609 956

*Through May 3, 2010


Militant leaders killed

2010

  • March 8, 2010: Sadam Hussein Al Hussami, also known as Ghazwan Al-Yemeni, al-Qaeda planner and explosives expert with contacts in AQAP and Afghan and Pakistani Taliban (AP)
  • February 24, 2010: Mohammad Qari Zafar, Taliban commander wanted in 2006 Karachi consulate bombing
  • February 17, 2010: Sheikh Mansoor, Egyptian-Canadian al-Qaeda leader
  • February 15, 2010: Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, al-Qaeda linked leader of a group called the Turkistani Islamic Party
  • January 14 or 17, 2010: Hakimullah Mehsud, TTP chief (Note: Hakimullah now appears to be alive)
  • January 9, 2010: Jamal Saeed Abdul Rahim, wanted for his alleged role in the 1986 hijacking of Pan American World Airways flight during a stop in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi (BBC, AP, Asian Tribune) [Author note: BBC says he “died” on Jan. 9, AP says he was killed by a drone on Jan. 9, and Asian Tribune says he died in the strike on Ismail Khel, which happened on Jan. 10 as per AFP, AP, CNN, Dawn, Times of India, and Geo.]
  • Early January, 2010: Mahmud Mahdi Zeidan, Jordanian Taliban commander, bodyguard of Mustafa Abu al-Yazid

2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007

Strikes by Target

Target 2004-2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Taliban 6 14 24 18 62
Baitullah Mehsud (not Taliban generally) 0 1 16 n/a 17
Al Qaeda 5 11 10** 2 28
Haqqani 1 9 4 5 19
Unclear/Other 0 4 4 15 23

*Count is more than the number of strikes in some cases because some targets fell into multiple categories.
**Saad bin Laden, one of Osama bin Laden’s sons, was reported killed by a drone in 2009 sometime before July 22, 2009, but it’s unknown exactly when, so he is included in the targeting as al Qaeda but not in one of the individual entries in 2009. [Author note: Saad bin Laden was reported alive in December 2009 by his brother, Omar.]

In cases where a media report described a specific target such as Baitullah Mehsud or the Haqqani network, the target is counted as such. If a target was both al Qaeda and Taliban commanders, it is counted once under each category. Strikes against Baitullah Mehsud are not included in the overall Taliban count. We assume that strikes which kill a leader in a given group were targeted at that group. Only for cases when a specific target or group was not reported by the media and a specific location was given, we used the following geographical areas of influence to estimate which particular militant group was targeted.

  • Miram Shah, North Waziristan – Jalaluddin Haqqani’s network
  • Ladha or Makeen, South Waziristan – Baitullah Mehsud/his deputies
  • Wana, South Waziristan – Mullah Nazir, Baitullah Mehsud’s (former) Taliban rival

2010

34. May 3, 2010
Location: Marsikhel, near Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4
Others killed: 2 (ET describes 6 “people” killed; added 4 to low total, 6 to high total; 4 to low/high militants)
Source: AP, Dawn, Geo/AP, ET
Assumed target: Car with militants (UNCLEAR)
33. April 26, 2010
Location: Khushali Toorkhel, 15 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Geo, AFP, AP, Reuters, BBC
Assumed target: House with militants (UNCLEAR)

32. April 24, 2010

Location: Machi Khel, 12 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 5-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, Geo, AP, Geo, AFP, Reuters
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)

31. April 16, 2010

Location: Toorkhel, suburbs of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Assumed target: Vehicle with militants (UNCLEAR)
30. April 14, 2010
Location: Amboor Shaga village, 15 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: BBC, AP, AFP, Geo, Daily Times, CNN
Assumed target: Vehicle carrying militants (UNCLEAR)
29. April 12, 2010
Location: Boya village, 12 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-5
Others killed: 8 (13 total described as “civilians”—AP; 3 added to low militants/total, 5 added to high militants, 13 added to high total)
Source: AP, Geo, AFP, Geo
Assumed target: Compound owned by local Taliban commander Tariq Khan (TALIBAN)
28. March 31, 2010
Location: Tapi village, 13 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, AP, Reuters, The News
Assumed target: Compound used by militants (UNCLEAR)
27. March 28, 2010
Location: Hurmaz, near Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: Unknown
Others killed: 4
Source: AFP, AP, Reuters, The News
Assumed target: Houses used by militants (UNCLEAR)
26. March 21, 2010
Location: Machis, outskirts of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AP, AFP, Geo, Reuters
Assumed target: Militant vehicle/compound (UNCLEAR)
25. March 21, 2010
Location: Lowari Mandi area of Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-13
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AP, Dawn, Reuters, AFP
Assumed target: Militant compound used by Taliban and/or Haqqani network (TALIBAN/HAQQANI)
24. March 17, 2010
Location: Mada Khel, 25 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: BBC, AJE, Reuters, Geo, AFP, AP
Assumed target: Hafiz Gul Bahadur group (TALIBAN)
23. March 17, 2010
Location: Hamzoni, 6 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: BBC, AJE, Geo, Reuters, AFP, AP
Assumed target: Hafiz Gul Bahadur vehicle (TALIBAN)
22. March 16, 2010
Location: Datta Khel, 12 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 8-11
Others killed: Unclear
Assumed target: Pro-Taliban militant compounds/compound of Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)
21. March 10, 2010
Location: Mizar Madakhel, 25-31 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-8
Others killed: Up to 5 (AP reports 9 total killed; added 4 to low total, 9 to high total)
Source: Geo, AFP, AP, AJE, ABC, BBC, NYT, Daily Times
Assumed target: Two vehicles used by militants to recover those killed in first strike (UNCLEAR)
20. March 10, 2010
Location: Mizar Madakhel, 25-31 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 5-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Geo, AFP, AP, AJE, Online, ABC, BBC, NYT, Daily Times
Assumed target: Vehicle and compound being used by militants (UNCLEAR)

19. March 8, 2010
Location: Maley Khan Sirai area of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Sadam Hussein Al Hussami, also known as Ghazwan Al-Yemeni (WSJ, AP, Reuters)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Dawn, Geo, AP, AFP, NBC, BBC
Assumed target: Building used by militants (QAEDA)

18. February 24, 2010
Location: Dargi Mandi, 2.5 miles north of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Mohammad Qari Zafar, Taliban commander wanted in 2006 Karachi consulate bombing (AP, The News, AP)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-8
Others killed: 5 (AP reports 13 total people killed; Reuters reports 8 militants. Added 13 to total high, 8 to militants high.)
Source: AP, BBC, Geo, AFP, Reuters, Dawn, CNN, NYT
Assumed target: Militant compound (HAQQANI/TALIBAN)
17. February 18, 2010
Location: Dandey Darpa Khel, near Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-4, including Muhammad Haqqani, brother of Siraj (AFP, AP, Dawn/AFP, Daily Times, Reuters, CNN, NYT)
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Reuters, Geo, AP, AFP, Dawn/AFP
Assumed target: Militant compound (HAQQANI)

16. February 17, 2010
Location: Tabi Tolkhel, 3 miles from Khost border OR Tapi, 9 miles east of Miram Shah (location approximated)
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Sheikh Mansoor (Dawn, AP)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 2-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Geo, Reuters, AFP, CNN, Dawn, Geo, AP
Assumed target: Taliban compound (TALIBAN)

15. February 15, 2010
Location: Tapi, 9 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, al-Qaeda linked leader of a group called the Turkistani Islamic Party (Geo, Reuters)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, Reuters, AFP
Assumed target: Vehicle carrying militants (QAEDA/OTHER)

14. February 14, 2010
Location: Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: NYT, CNN, AFP, Reuters, Geo, AJE, Dawn
Assumed target: Militant compound; house of militant collaborator Khanadan Khan Dawar (Dawn) (UNCLEAR)

13. February 2, 2010
Location: Deegan/Muhammad Khel/Pai Khel/Toor Narai villages, Datta Khel, 30km west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 14-16 (Dawn reports 16 militants, AP reports 14; added 14-16 militants)
Others killed: 13-17 (Reuters, AFP report 31 total; CNN reports 29 total; added 29-31 total)
Source: Geo, AJE, Daily Times, Dawn, AP, Reuters, AFP, AFP, NYT, BBC, CNN, WSJ
Assumed target: Militant training center (TALIBAN)

12. January 29, 2010
Location: Muhammad Khel, Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 5-15
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AFP, AP, BBC, NYT, Geo, Reuters
Assumed target: Haqqani/Taliban compound (HAQQANI/TALIBAN)

11. January 19, 2010
Location: Deegan, 18 miles west of Miram Shah, in Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: At least 3 (Dawn reports 6 suspected militants killed, CNN 3)
Others killed: 5-6 (5-6 reported totals; 3 added to militants high/low, 5-6 to total)
Sources: AP, Geo, Dawn, CNN, AFP, Reuters
Assumed target: Compound and vehicle (HAQQANI/TALIBAN)

10. January 17, 2010
Location: Nizba village, Shaktoi region, South Waziristan*
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Shahid ullah, Hafiz Nizamuddin Storikhel, Khawarey and Mohtaj (Dawn)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 12-20
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AJE, WSJ, Reuters, The News, NYT, Dawn, Dawn, AP, Wash Post, CNN, Geo, BBC
Assumed target: Militant compound owned by Mehsud tribe/Hakimullah; house of Usman Jan, head of IMU (TALIBAN/OTHER)
*Note: Shaktoi region is variously referred to as South Waziristan, North Waziristan, or the border region. I count its location based on the majority of reports about the strike in question.

9. January 15, 2010
Location: Bichi village, Mirkhwanai area, near Shaktoi, North Waziristan (border)
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Azmatullah Mawiya (TT-Punjab, Dawn)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AFP, Geo, Dawn, AP
Assumed target: Militant compound (TALIBAN)

8. January 15, 2010
Location: Zanini village, near Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AFP, Geo, Dawn, BBC, AP
Assumed target: Militant camp; Hakimullah Mehsud (TALIBAN)

7. January 14, 2010
Location: Shaktoi village in the Pasalkot region of North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Abdul Basit Usman (AP; later unconfirmed: CP)
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 10-18
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: NYT, AP, AFP, AJE, Reuters, BBC, CNN, Dawn, Geo, Pajhwok, AP
Assumed target: Hakimullah Mehsud (TALIBAN)

6. January 10, 2010
Location: Ismail Khel village, in Datta Khel region, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 2-5
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AP, AFP, CNN, Geo, Times of India, Dawn
Assumed target: A militant training compound affiliated with Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)

Died January 9, 2010: Jamal Saeed Abdul Rahim, wanted for his alleged role in the 1986 hijacking of Pan American World Airways flight during a stop in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi (BBC, AP, Asian Tribune)—note, BBC says he “died” on Jan. 9, AP says he was killed by a drone on Jan. 9, and Asian Tribune says he died in the strike on Ismail Khel, which happened on Jan. 10 as per AFP, AP, CNN, Dawn, Times of India, and Geo.

5. January 8, 2010
Location: Tappi village, near Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AFP, AP, CNN, Geo
Assumed target: Hafiz Gul Bahadur’s network (TALIBAN)

4. January 6, 2010
Location: Sanzali area of the Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 5-6
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: AFP, AP, Dawn, CNN, AJE
Assumed target: Locals collecting bodies from first Jan. 6 attack (TALIBAN)
*Note: NYT reports 20-25 killed in both Jan. 6 strikes, but is an outlier.

3. January 6, 2010
Location: Sanzali area of Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 3-7
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: Pajhwok, Geo, AFP, AP, Dawn, CNN, AJE
Assumed target: Taliban training center belonging to Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)

2. January 3, 2010
Location: Mosakki village, 25 km east of Miram Shah, in Mir Ali tehsil, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 2-5
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: Geo TV, AFP, AP, Reuters, Dawn
Assumed target: House of well-known tribesman Sadiq Noor in Mir Ali (UNCLEAR)

1. January 1, 2010
Location: Ghundikala village, 15 km east of Miram Shah in tehsil Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Al Qaeda/Taliban leaders killed: Unknown
Al Qaeda/Taliban killed: 2-3
Others killed: Unknown
Sources: Geo TV, Reuters, Dawn, AFP, NYT, CNN
Assumed target: A car carrying the militants (UNCLEAR)

2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007

http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/drones

Leave a comment