VIEW: Will the Loya jirga be a success? —Mohammad Jamil

Historical evidence suggests that the Afghans guard their independence very jealously. The idea of sending some leaders into exile would not be acceptable to the Taliban leaders, as they are from Afghanistan and they are going to stay there

Most Afghan political leaders are of the opinion that in a country where tribal affiliations play a crucial role, a jirga representing influential tribes can persuade and convince the Taliban to end their insurgency. The upcoming jirga will decide how to reach out to Taliban leaders with a view towards persuading them to participate in the process for achieving reconciliation and peace in the country. After the botched bombing attempt at Times Square, anti-Pakistan lobbies seem to have been successful and efforts are being made to keep Pakistan out of the process just like India was kept out at the London Conference on the future of Afghanistan. President Karzai is reported to have been sceptical of Pakistan after the arrest of Mullah Baradar, and feels that Pakistan has thrown a ‘spanner in the works’, as the Afghan government was negotiating with Mullah Baradar. Let us presume that he had been in contact with Mullah Baradar without Pakistan’s knowledge. This meant that he wanted to keep Pakistan out of the negotiation process.

According to press reports, the Loya jirga has three objectives: one is to rally broad support behind President Karzai’s policy. Second, the jirga will be asked to endorse a government plan for the reintegration of insurgents in line with the decision taken at the London Conference. And, finally, to set some ground rules for holding talks with the insurgents. Around 1,000 tribal, political, religious and civic leaders including some sympathisers of the insurgents are expected to participate in the jirga.

The Guardian has recently leaked some of the details of Karzai’s peace plan, which envisages such steps as sending insurgent leaders into exile to a third country, and the de-radicalisation of their fighters. The report said that menial jobs would be created for Taliban foot-soldiers including tailoring, weaving carpets or serving in the Afghan Army. But such proposals are likely to exacerbate the situation rather than achieve peace and reconciliation. There is a perception that there can be no progress unless the Pashtuns — more than half of Afghanistan’s population — are given assurances that they will have their rightful share in power.

Nine years’ resistance has shown that the Pashtuns are not likely to shift their loyalties. One can disagree with the Taliban with the way they tried to export their version of Islam to other countries and also the manner in which they ruled their country. The fact, however, remains that they are fighting to rid their country of foreign domination and not for some doles or jobs. Historical evidence suggests that the Afghans guard their independence very jealously. The idea of sending some leaders into exile would not be acceptable to the Taliban leaders, as they are from Afghanistan and they are going to stay there. In the past, efforts were made to buy insurgents’ loyalties but to no avail. It is true that occupiers, insurgents and those in the government, including members of the Northern Alliance, feel exhausted and do not want to live in trepidation and fear all the time. The Loya jirga will, nevertheless, provide an opportunity for working out a power-sharing formula to end the bloodshed.

President Karzai has to understand that the Americans cannot stay and provide protection for an indefinite period, as the American economy is already in dire straits. He must know that foreign money and soldiers have their limits, and they cannot forever die just to keep him in power. It has become obvious that the US and its allies cannot win the war, and the Taliban also are not in a position to push alien forces out of Afghanistan. In other words, it is a stalemate. The Taliban leadership should also understand this ground reality. Of course, President Karzai’s half-brother has been issuing irresponsible statements to provoke Taliban leaders. Last year he told The Guardian that while fighters could surrender and return in peace, the Afghan government would never share power or give in to demands for changing the country’s constitution. It appears that the US and its allies are making the same mistake they made in Bonn, and then during the elections, i.e. to keep the genuine Taliban and Pashtun leaders out of power.

On May 11, 2010, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told President Hamid Karzai that the US would remain committed to his country’s security and reconstruction long after the last US combat troops had departed. This shows that the US does not have the intention to withdraw forces as per schedule, and its only objective is to convey an impression that US forces would be withdrawn next year to seek support in the mid-term Congressional elections to be held in November. Afghanistan has been facing death and destruction for the last three decades. First, when the Soviet forces landed in Afghanistan and the US and the West planned overt and covert operations against them. Second, in a civil war, and finally once again it was devastated in the name of the war on terror. But, irrespective of the longevity of the war, ultimately the warring parties have to come to the negotiating table. According to reports, efforts were made in the recent past for reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban leaders in Saudi Arabia to end the war in Afghanistan.

However, both Saudi Arabia and the Taliban spokesman have denied such reports, the latter categorically stating that they would not enter into any negotiations unless foreign troops leave Afghanistan. He said that even if there were some talks with the so-called Taliban, they were not the Taliban’s representatives. In fact, President Karzai was not sure about his position when President Obama, during his visit to Kabul in 2009, lectured him on rampant corruption, which had resulted in somewhat cold relations between the two. Some members of the Obama administration had suggested that Karzai’s visit should be cancelled. Since the US has no replacement, therefore it has to deal with him. While these lines were being written, President Karzai was in the US. Analysts are of the view that the only viable option for both Obama and Karzai is to sit down with the insurgent leaders face to face and work out a power-sharing formula with them in Kabul, as the Taliban leaders are not likely to leave Afghanistan.

The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at mjamil1938@hotmail.com