COMMENT:Why the world needs a stable Pakistan —Farhan Reza

After 9/11, Pakistan again acquired frontline state status. But the spillover impact of militancy and Pakistan’s persistence with old geo-strategic policy turned it into a battleground, making it internally vulnerable and regarded with suspicion by its neighbours and allies in the war against terror

A new transit trade route between Pakistan and Afghanistan opens up a new opportunity for the country to strengthen its geo-strategic position in coming years. A misconception of such trade accruing to Indian benefit has largely been propagated on the basis of a tense 63-year-long relationship and Indian industrial edge over Pakistan. But a closer look reveals that it could provide Pakistan room to be in a position to push its national interest more forcefully to become a major centre of economic activity in the region instead of the loser in this new geo-economic game.

Pakistan’s significance as a transit route country was highlighted after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces for the utilisation of untapped gas resources in the Caspian Sea. The world’s focus on these sea gas reserves, the growing Indian middle class-based market and future energy needs of the region enhance Pakistan’s status as a connecting state between Central Asia and India.

By the mid-1990s, talks and paperwork on signing a gas pipeline project from Central Asia to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan were underway. However, poor planning for post-Soviet Afghanistan created chaos in the country and insecurity between Pakistan and India derailed the project many times, before the final abandonment of the billion dollar prospect. After 9/11, Pakistan again acquired frontline state status. But the spillover impact of militancy and Pakistan’s persistence with old geo-strategic policy turned it into a battleground, making it internally vulnerable and regarded with suspicion by its neighbours and allies in the war against terror.

Pakistan’s importance must be asserted beyond its capability of handling militants, more so now that the Pentagon’s task force has confirmed the US Geological Survey’s finding of strategically important minerals like uranium, lithium, copper and gold being present in Afghanistan. Since international relations, friendship and enmity are determined by economic interests, Pakistan must position itself for the export of these minerals to the world.

The financial crunch in European and American markets has underlined the significance of the Central Asian and Russian markets for Indian businessmen. Mining and refining of precious gems is already a significant industry in India, especially in Surat, Gujarat.

In Pakistan, the main hurdle remains militancy in the region, which was initiated by Pakistan and the US in the late 70s, and has now become a monster for the entire world, including the US. On the southern side, militants have been making stability impossible in the region while the eastern border remains tense mainly due to Kashmir and the aftermath of the Mumbai attack. It has been argued, and largely accepted, that militancy was also fuelled, to some extent, due to Indian atrocities in Indian-held Kashmir.

In a rapidly changing scenario, the US has been willing to withdraw its forces but wishes to keep control over Afghanistan’s trillion dollar minerals and it hints at the option of talks with the Taliban for political inclusion to ensure peace and stability in the region. On the other side, understanding new realities, India, apparently on the intervention of the US, changed direction and started talking about friendship and trade. For India, energy resources from Afghanistan and land route access to Central Asian markets, along with attracting mineral refining business from the US, are the main interests. Afghan reconstruction was another main attraction, but anyone who has been to Afghanistan recently may already be aware about the large presence of Indian contractors working in different sectors. India has already started working to create a counter-check on Pakistan by increasing its control on water resources.

Evidently, Pakistan will be the main player and guarantor of exploring market potential in the nexus between Russia, Central Asia and India. This is why the Indian foreign minister kept repeating that India wishes to see a stable Pakistan. It is believed that stability in a transit trade route is essential to ensure smooth and low cost flow of goods from one destination to another.

The concern of a segment of Pakistan’s business community, that they will be wiped out by Indian industrialists, is rhetorical given that the industry here is already on the verge of collapse due to higher costs of production, scarcity of water and non-availability of electricity. Many textile mills have reportedly been shifted to Bangladesh because of its free market access to Europe and the US.

Indian goods are already available in Pakistan. From paan masala to Indian clothes and even food items, all have been available in Pakistani markets for a long time. The Indian entertainment industry has played a role in integrating societies for expanding market potential. Pakistani companies and multinationals prefer advertising in India, which shows diminishing business boundaries.

After Afghanistan’s experience, it has become clear that disintegration of a country in this region will fuel long-term instability and chaos. The first gas pipeline project was scrapped because of instability, and the world cannot afford to let Pakistan’s internal situation shatter its dream to extract a trillion dollars worth of minerals in Afghanistan, land access of the world community to untapped oil and gas reserves in Central Asian states and exploring the full potential of middle-class based Indian markets.

Thus, India and the world need a stable Pakistan. They will settle regional issues to pave the way, but only in the face of Pakistan’s flexibility. A prudent and cautious attitude towards regional issues will provide Pakistan an opportunity to have a greater say in the region than it currently does.

Frahan Reza is a senior journalist and can be reached at farhan.reza@gmail.com