China has good reason to stay quiet
By Peter J Brown

The US Air Force’s (USAF) launch of the mysterious robotic X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle – a small, unmanned reusable space plane which resembles but is dwarfed by the much larger space shuttle – from Florida on Thursday came just hours after the launch from California of the Falcon Hypersonic Test Vehicle-2 (HTV-2). The HTV-2 is an unmanned glider developed by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) which was reportedly supposed to travel more than 4,000 miles (6,437 kilometers) on its test-flight in just 30 minutes.

While the X-37B launch was a success – no landing date has yet been announced – DARPA announced that the Falcon test flightas a failure as contact was lost with the hypersonic craft nine minutes after its suborbital launch from a Minotaur IV rocket. Still, by conducting both test flights on the same day, the US sent out a strong signal that despite the heated ongoing domestic debate over the future of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the US is unmatched and as bold as ever when it comes to space research and development.

These two simultaneous tests also leave the distinct impression that despite any US claims to the contrary, the US military is engaged in the deployment of space weapons and is preparing to roll out so-called conventional “Prompt Global Strike” capabilities. As the US space shuttle program nears its end, the US military intends to retain the ability to launch a space plane quickly – one which can remain in space for well over 200 days – and after it lands safely, have it ready to go up again in as little as 15 days.

China Daily quoted Zhai Dequan, deputy secretary-general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, who said that the impact of the X-37B “may not be serious enough to trigger an arms race in space. The US previously said that it would slow down the pace of developing the space plane project. But now with the launch, it shows the US has never really slowed down.” [1]

China could easily put the US in the hot seat for failing to disclose details about the true nature of the X-37B test-flight. Having such an opportunity to turn the tables on the US after listening to so many US complaints in the past about China’s lack of transparency no doubt bemuses Beijing.

However, China has good reasons for tempering its criticism. Several days after the launches of the X-37B and Falcon HTV-2, for example, there was a report in the Chinese press attributed to Wang Chun, a senior engineer at the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute who serves as general director of Near Space Vehicle Research Laboratory, that China had successfully launched its own hypersonic “prototype space fighter”. Whether or not this involved China’s “Shenlong” space plane project is unclear. Regardless, all coverage of this story which commenced in China Aviation News suddenly ceased in the Chinese press, and a well-publicized retraction took place shortly thereafter. [2]

There are other reasons for China to exercise some degree of restraint.

“The Chinese are pleased that, unlike the [George W] Bush administration, US President Barack Obama values arms control as a legitimate vehicle for realizing US and international security objectives, and that he is working to minimize friction and facilitate dialogue and cooperation between the US and China on these issues,” said Gregory Kulacki, senior analyst and China Project Manager for the Global Security Program at the Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists.

In space in particular, Obama seems open to a fresh start, and China wants that openness to continue.

“The Obama administration has expressed a willingness to discuss space arms control in Geneva and China welcomes the change,” said Kulacki. “This winter, in Track-Two talks in Geneva, the Chinese delegation hinted they would be open to discussing a ban on terrestrial anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons as part of a future Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) agreement.”

One of the criticisms of the current space arms control treaty proposed by Russia and China has been that it does not prohibit ASAT weapons, “so this indicates the draft is only meant as a starting point for talks, not a limit on what China and Russia would be willing to include in a potential treaty,” Kulacki added.

At the same time, Chinese military planners, particularly those responsible for scientific and technical development, have been anticipating developments like the X-37B and the Falcon for two decades.

“They are not surprised by anything the US is doing. They have been concerned about the weaponization of space for more than two decades, and would like to see international negotiations to address what they perceive as a potential arms race in space,” said Kulacki. “They would like to constrain US development of military space technologies, because, in part, they don’t want to have to make large investments in keeping up, but also because they worry these technologies are destabilizing and could precipitate a unwanted war.”

As the X-37B headed into orbit, former Russian Air Force commander Anatoly Kornukov accused the US of spitting on calls from Russia and the world “to abandon plans for the deployment of weapons in space”.

“The aggressors from space could turn Russia into something like Iraq or Yugoslavia,” said Kornukov.

Kornukov obviously disapproved of the fact that the USAF provided so little information on the actual technology being tested.

“What remains unclear is what mission[s] the USAF intends to use the technology for – and it must have something in mind since it already wants two [space planes],” said Joan Johnson-Freese, Chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the US Naval War College. “Given the dual use nature of most space technology – in terms of both civil/military and offense/defense – the ambiguity created by the silence regarding the intended mission is understandably causing angst in many countries. The US has consistently chided China for not being forthcoming about its intent for its space technology, so the X-37B could become an excuse for China to continue that practice.”

Not only is China quickly learning the ins and outs of international diplomacy regarding dual-use space technology, and therefore more nuanced in both its actions and responses, it is also signaling that it is ready to work with the US on human spaceflight.

“China is willing to forego too much criticism of US space activities right now – again, especially since others are raising the concern flag for them – so as not to jeopardize the cooperation potential, and so that they can then pursue similar paths if they so choose,” said Johnson-Freese. “One of the most interesting aspects of this story is that it is a much bigger story internationally than in the US, and with a much more ominous and nefarious tone. In effect, the US sees itself as Han Solo in space, while the rest of the world hears the eerie voice of Darth Vader when the US talks about space.”

Before the X-37B even lifted off its launch pad, DARPA had already “lost contact” with the Falcon hypersonic test vehicle which had been specifically designed to splash down into the Pacific at very high speed in the final phase of its test flight.

“I assume DARPA was unable to conduct whatever operations it had planned for the vehicle prior to crashing, meaning that the information received was incomplete or bad,” said Professor Roger Handberg, a military space expert at the University of Central Florida. “Although one could be more Machiavellian and suggest that the report was partially misinformation and in fact DARPA got what it wanted, but does not wish to let others know that.”

The US Falcon was not the first unmanned hypersonic test vehicle to fly over the Pacific. Japan’s Hypersonic Flight Experiment (HYFLEX) in early 1996 was an integral part of Japan’s efforts to develop its own space shuttle known as Kibo (“Hope”). After achieving a maximum altitude of 110 kilometers and a maximum speed of Mach 15, HYFLEX vanished – “it was unsuccessfully recovered” said the Japanese – after it splashed down northeast of Chichi-jima in the Ogasawara Islands. [3]

As for the whereabouts of China’s fleet of space tracking and telemetry ships during the Falcon test flight, their exact location at the time remains a mystery. This was also the case last year when North Korea allegedly launched its latest satellite.

“The Chinese are simply curious about what others are capable of doing and what they are doing. They know what has been publicly said but are, in effect, checking up on what actually is done,” said Handberg. “I assume their trust in the North Korean military is no higher than their trust in US military. Both engage in disinformation.”

When the Chinese conducted their ASAT test in 2007, according to Handberg, the understanding then was that the test reflected the People’s Liberation Army’s view that they needed to

demonstrate such a capacity, “while the Foreign Ministry was in the dark”.
“[Both China and the US] have militaries that try to cover all bets, space weaponization since the 1950s has been on the US military’s agenda although normally as a very low priority for both political and technical reasons. The technology for years lagged behind the rhetoric and vision of the ‘space cadets’ in the military,” said Handberg. “The X-37B is a test bed and we are still a ways from any concept that includes deployment. The Obama administration would reject deployment at this point, but like with ballistic missile defense is not going foreclose options, the world is too volatile to do so.”

China’s relative silence regarding the Falcon test flight is understandable given the failure of the mission.

“There is no reason to get excited if your adversary is unable to make it work,” said Handberg. “The pre-flight hype was about the X-37B and that drew attention especially when it appears to be successful and the Falcon failed.”

Handberg emphasizes that the Chinese while naive about some aspects of American politics, do understand the situation in which Obama finds himself, and at the same time, the Chinese “are aware that the US Department of Defense operates somewhat independently of US presidents”.

“This is true of all administrations. The US military’s view is that they are just providing options without the follow on of resource commitment,” said Handberg. “The X-37B survived multiple administrations including former president [Bill] Clinton, who was much more openly skeptical about weaponization.”

Eric Hagt, China program director at the Washington, DC-based World Security Institute, watched China’s reaction to these tests carefully.

“Many of the articles and blogs I came across mentioned both the X-37B and Falcon in the same breath as part of USAF’s push for a Prompt Global Strike option,” said Hagt, who described the Falcon HTV-2 as less novel than the reusable X-37B vehicle, and in essence, as an extension of an inter-continental capability, just faster and with conventional warheads.

“As such, in terms of space, it doesn’t really cross a threshold, even if it is potentially destabilizing. The Falcon HTV program is not really a space weapons program unless you categorize all ICBMs as space weapons, which is not entirely untrue, depending on your definition,” said Hagt.

The X-37B crosses a threshold, and China probably sees this as inherently more destabilizing since it is capable of transporting a weapon in space, and holding it here for weeks on end.

“This development puts in jeopardy space arms control negotiations. The China Daily report on the X-37B said as much,” said Hagt. “Although from a technical point of view, carrying a weapon load does not seem like a particularly effective use of the vehicle when you could do the same job with a ground-based launcher (aimed at ground targets) or a co-orbital satellite (aimed at space-based targets) at far lower cost.”

Since China appears to be heading in the same direction as the US when it comes to “Prompt Global Strike” capabilities, there may be a reluctance on China’s part to condemn any US efforts that China itself is interested in.

“China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) would be able to hit moving targets at long distances, and thus will require a robust space, near-space supporting architecture for targeting and tracking. If successfully tested and deployed, there does not seem to be any bottleneck [or] technological constraint to extending such a precision guided ballistic missile to intercontinental targets,” said Hagt.

Here, Hagt is extrapolating a logical conclusion from a weapons development program that is only now getting underway.

“If true though, the X-37B is a component of global strike that is qualitatively different, and again goes to the issue of crossing a threshold in space,” said Hagt.

Hagt is concerned about the role of perception and how nations frequently pursue military technologies as counters to real or perceived threats.

“I can only imagine the long-term defense planners in China thinking that ‘the trajectory of the American military machine is etched in stone – not even Obama can stop it – and we must act accordingly’,” said Hagt. “The Obama administration has thus far pursued a fairly revolutionary vision on nuclear disarmament, curtailment of missile defense in Europe, withdrawal from Iraq, etc, presumably creating constructive opportunities for other nations to back away from their own destabilizing strategic programs. If Obama now allows – or cannot stem – global strike, and space weaponization, the result could be worse than during the Bush administration.”

Kulacki adds considerable weight to this rather pessimistic assessment.

“These types of military space technologies shorten decision-making times for policy-makers. It is precisely this US quest to strike quickly, anywhere, that may force a Chinese leader into a precipitous military decision both sides would have liked to avoid if the technology did not force them to act so quickly,” said Kulacki. “Given the lack of good relationships, the difference over Taiwan, and their own inability to make decisions quickly, the Chinese are obviously concerned. The latest test of the latest gizmo is not the cause of their concern, but the long-term implication of this whole genre of military space technology.”

Notes
1. US spacecraft sparks arms race concerns, China Daily, April 24, 2010.
2. Paper refutes space fighter reports, Global Times, April 30, 2010.
See also Shenlong Space Plane Advances China’s Military Space Potential, International Assessment and Strategy Center, December. 17, 2007.
3. Activities in the past, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine USA.

Shenlong Space Plane Advances China’s Military Space Potential

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by Richard Fisher, Jr.
Published on December 17th, 2007
ARTICLES

A chance December 11, 2007 release of a photo on a Chinese website has led to a rare unofficial “declassification” of a new Chinese unmanned test space plane.^[1] Designated the “Shenlong,” or Divine Dragon, this small aircraft was shown suspended from the fuselage of a Xian H-6 bomber and launch aircraft.  So far there has been no official Chinese government, PLA or Chinese corporate or space program related disclosure about this program.  However, from this photo and other Chinese sources, it is possible to conclude that the Shenlong constitutes a second Chinese air-launched space-launch vehicle (SLV) program, but for the purposes of testing technologies for a future re-usable unmanned or manned space shuttle or other trans-atmospheric vehicle.

	Original Shenlong Photo: First seen on December 11, 2007, the Shenlong space vehicle is seen suspended from a Xian H-6 bomber from an unknown unit. Source: Chinese Internet

While both unmanned and manned space planes could serve a range of scientific and commercial missions, it is also clear that the PLA envisions such vehicles to perform military missions.  Chinese military literature has long suggested the PLA seeks to dominate outer space and its successful January 11, 2007 interception and destruction of a satellite demonstrated the PLA now has an initial space combat capability not currently possessed by the United States.

	Shenlong Closeup: This out-take from the December 11 photo shows the Shenlong to be a small rocket powered unmanned space plane, as seen from the black heat shielding. Source: Chinese Internet

Initial Shenlong Details

The photo made available on Chinese military issue Internet sites on December 11 shows a small rocket powered aircraft suspended beneath the fuselage of a Xian H-6 bomber.  The small aircraft has a black underside consistent with heat-shielding necessary for re-entry to Earth’s atmosphere from space.  This would indicate that Shenlong is meant to be a reusable space craft.  In November 2006 China revealed another air-launched space launch vehicle very similar in configuration to the U.S. Orbital Sciences Pegasus air launched SLV, which is not intended to be reusable. The new aircraft seen on December 11 does not appear to have a vertical stabilizer or wing-tip stabilizers, which would be necessary for stability, but a subsequent Chinese-Internet released photo indicates this aircraft may have a large vertical stabilizer that will require a different carriage method for the H-6 bomber.  The absence of a stabilizer for the December 11 aircraft raises the possibility that its main purpose may be to test its aerodynamic compatibility with the bomber, and that it may not be the version that is launched into space.

	New Shenlong View: On December 12, 2007 another Chinese web poster offered this computer generated rendering of the Shenlong with a vertical stabilizer, using a curious “trapeze” suspension from an H-6 bomber. It cannot be confirmed that this will be the final configuration for an H-6 launching of the Shenlong. Source: Chinese Interent

Within 24 hours of the posting of the initial photo, more apparent details had emerged on Chinese military issue websites.  While interesting, much of this data cannot be confirmed in the absence of any official Chinese government, military or corporate disclosures.  Nevertheless, various posters have suggested that the Shenlong space craft is a program funded by the famous “863 Program” for dual-use high-technology research established in 1986 to advance China’s military modernization.  The Shenlong carries the program number “863-706,” and as such, is likely a PLA-priority program.  Other posters revealed that the No. 611 Design Institute usually associated with the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation was involved in some design and testing aspects of the Shenlong.  Another poster revealed an article from mid-October 2007 claiming to show the digital control center created by the 611 Institute to test the Shenlong.  Mark Wade has noted that the 611 Institute may have gained insights regarding space planes from cooperative programs with France during the 1980s, which was developing the Hermes space plane.^[2]

	Possible 611 Institute Shenlong Control Center: One Chinese web poster states that this facility was created by the 611 Institute to conduct the test flights of the Shenlong. Source: Chinese Internet

Another interesting aspect of the Shenlong program is that it provides a rare example of how a state and military funded program is assisted by Chinese technical universities.  One web poser revealed that the Nanjing University for Astronautics and Aeronautics (NUAA) was likely involved in devising early digital “computer-aided-design” (CAD) for the spacecraft, which likely used a version of the French Dassault CATIA design software, used throughout China’s military industries.  NUAA researchers may have also led the design of the control computer and re-entry control system. Northwest University, which also does extensive 863 Program funded research, is said to have helped design the INS/GPS (Inertial Navigation System/Global Positioning Navigation Satellite) control system for the 863-706 program. The Harbin Technical University, a key center for PLA-funded military-technical research, is said to have helped design composite structures for the Shenlong.

However, these websites were not clear regarding the status of the Shenlong program.  It appears that much of the design work took place between 2000 and 2004.  One Internet source indicates the original December 11 picture may have been taken in late 2005, but this cannot be confirmed.  The existence of the 611 Institute run test facility might indicate that some degree of flight testing has occurred.  In early 2007 a French publication noted that Western intelligence agencies were very interested in the first test flight of a “secret super-scramjet demonstrator” which was tested in late 2006 and landed in the Indian Ocean.^[3] Indeed, China is pursuing the development of air-breathing hypersonic vehicles,^[4] but it is also possible this may have been a test of the Shenlong.

These same Chinese websites also did not offer details regarding the performance of the Shenlong.  Even if launched from a new H-6K bomber, which reportedly will be powered by Russian D-30K turbofans and capable of higher launch altitudes, the Shenlong does not appear to be large enough to reach sustained Low Earth Orbit (LEO) flight.  As such, it may only be capable of short-duration LEO flight over Chinese territory, which would be consistent with a technology test and validation mission. The Shenlong would also likely help China with the development of hypersonic aircraft. The initial photo of the Shenlong does not indicate that it can carry a payload other than its motor, liquid fuel and its guidance system.  That said, the Shenlong is broadly similar to U.S. and other unmanned space planes designed to test new technologies.  These would include the U.S. Orbital Sciences X-34, Boeing X-37 and Japan’s HOPE-X.  A larger version presumably would be able to carry a payload and be capable of sustained LEO flight.

China’s Interest In Space Planes

China’s interest in space planes began in earnest with the arrival of Dr. Qian Xueshen, who was the co-founder of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology and made enormous contributions to early U.S. rocket programs. But in 1950 he was suspected of spying for China, lost his security clearances, put under house arrest, and then deported to China in 1955 as part of post Korean War prisoner exchanges. Controversy has since raged over whether Qian’s prosecution was justified, or an example of McCarthy-era paranoia causing a travesty of U.S. justice.^[5] But on his return, Qian became a key ally of Mao Zedong and led the creation of China’s modern missile and aerospace sector. The release of the Shenlong picture occurred on his 96^th birthday, and was thus likely intended as an unofficial tribute to Qian’s profound contributions to China’s missile forces, missile defense and anti-satellite programs, and broad manned and unmanned space capabilities.^[6] It was Qian’s 1949 concept for a space plane that formed the basis for the U.S. Air Force’s “Dynasoar” military space plane concept of the early 1960s,^[7] which led to the U.S. Space Shuttle.  Qian also proposed another space plane concept in the late 1970s that closely resembled the Dynasoar.

Spacecraft expert Mark Wade has noted that in 1988 Chinese designers proposed three space plane concepts.  The Chang Cheng 1 was proposed by what is now the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight technology, and was a 2/3 shuttle-size space plane atop three large boosters.  What is now the China Academy of Launch Technology proposed a much smaller space place atop Long-March size booster.  Finally, the 601 Institute, connected to the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, proposed a small space plane atop an air-breathing hypersonic launcher.  Only the later would have involved a truly reusable space access system, but all were deemed beyond China’s capabilities. But had they been implemented these proposals would have resulted in space planes flying in this decade.^[8]

	Chinese Space Plane Concepts: Chinese institutes have studied many space plane concepts over the last two decades. Perhaps most interesting was the involvement of the 601 Institute, a jet fighter designer, in a two-stage small space plane concept, with a model seen at the Shenyang Aircraft Co. factory museum (bottom). Source: Chinese Internet

This ambition has apparently been revived.  In October 2006 the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) revealed that China is developing a winged space shuttle for use in the 2020 time frame.^[9] Concept images indicate the planned space plane may be about 2/3 the size of the U.S. and Russian space shuttles. But instead of a using a large fuel tank that powered launch engines in the space plane, it uses a separate three-part liquid fuel booster.

	Recent CALT Shuttle Concept: This is a possible CALT space shuttle concept that China may develop by 2020. Source: Chinese Internet

Chinese ambitions to build an unmanned space plane may also be longstanding.  At the 1996 Zhuhai Airshow this analyst found a Chinese brochure depicting a wind tunnel test model similar in shape to the Shenlong, perhaps indicating that research for the “863-706” program began in the early 1990s. Chinese reports in 2006 noted the possible development of a “recoverable” space plane and a “reusable” space transportation vehicle.^[10] The Shenlong may be one concept for a reusable space transportation vehicle.  On December 12 Hong Kong’s Wenweipo newspaper reported comments by spacecraft expert Chinese Academy of Sciences member Zhuang Fenggan, who is also member of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Group and a frequent spokesman for space matters, who noted that China was conducting extensive research on trans-atmospheric vehicles, but that there was no timetable for their completion.  But the same Wenweipo report also noted an aviation industry report which stated that a test flight will occur during the 11^th Five Year Plan, or possibly within the next three years.^[11]

China’s “Hermes”

Chinese ambitions to build an unmanned space plane may also be longstanding.  At the 1996 Zhuhai Airshow this analyst found a Chinese brochure depicting a wind tunnel test model similar for what at the time appeared to be a shape for another unknown space plane.  Its main feature is the use of small vertical stabilizers at the tip of the wings.  This shape later seemed similar to the French “Hermes” space plane concept of the early 1980s, which was never realized.  However, Mark Wade has noted that the 611 Institute may have gained insights regarding space planes from cooperative programs with France during the 1980s, which was developing the Hermes space plane.^[12] This may account for the similarity.  Since the 1996 picture there had been no disclosures of additional information about the 1996 wind tunnel model.  But on December 16, 2007 a Chinese military issue web site disclosed a photo showing a model of the Shenlong along with a model of the Chinese “Hermes” space plane, perhaps indicating this space plane concept remains active.^[13]

	China’s “Hermes” Space Plane: A December 16 photo shows a model of the Shenlong and a new model of the Chinese “Hermes” space plane, which is very to a wind tunnel test model the author found at the 1996 Zhuhai Airshow (bottom). Source: Chinese Internet

Military Potential of Unmanned Space Platforms

The Shenlong could validate technologies and form the basis for a range of unmanned and manned space vehicles, which both could serve civil-commercial as well as military missions.  However, it appears be sufficient Chinese literature and statements to justify concern that China’s space planes are being developed for military missions in space and to attack targets on Earth.  In his recent review of Chinese literature on Chinese military views toward space warfare, Dr. Larry Wortzel noted that China was exploring a list of potential space weapons, which included “space planes that can transit and fight ‘up or down’ in the upper atmosphere or space.”^[14]

In May 2002 Dr. Zhuang Fenggan gave an interview to the Beijing Youth Daily in which he revealed new information on China’s space plane plans.  In this article Zhuang suggested that a space plane was intended to be a “space combat weapons platform” and serve “dual use” missions.  He also noted that a mere “space shuttle” did not meet China’s needs, which required a space plane that could move “freely” between space and the upper atmosphere.  Zhuang also identified a number of technologies China would have to master for its space plane, to include hypersonic, high mobility, and advanced materials.  But it is also curious that Zhuang would identify “high stealth” and “precision strike” technologies as important for China’s space plane.^[15]

	Dr. Zhuang Fenggan: A principle expert guiding China’s space and military space programs. Source: Chinese Internet

In 2005 three Chinese researchers from the Center for Precision Guidance Technology of the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Aeronautics indicated that China may have already been developing a space capability for attacking targets on Earth.  In one article they noted, “The greatest advantage of a space-based ground attack weapon system is its high speed and short reentry time.  It is extremely difficult for the enemy to intercept such a weapon.”^[16] While this article does not identify Chinese space plane or space shuttles as a potential space based “ground attack weapon,” one cannot discount that China may be designing its unmanned or manned space plane for this purpose.

Space Bomber Concept

The concept of a space bomber is not new.   During World War Two Germany’s Dr. Eugene Albert Sanger proposed a 100 ton rocket powered bomber that would skip atop the upper atmosphere to attack the United States.^[17] There has also been recent U.S. debate over making greater military use of space.  In 1999 U.S. Congress created The Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization, which was led by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.  In its February 2001 report the “Space Commission” concluded:

“The nation’s vital interests depend increasingly on the capability of its military professionals to develop, acquire and operate systems capable of sustained space combat operations…It is also possible to project power though and from space in response to events anywhere in the world.  Unlike weapons from aircraft, land forces or ships, space missions initiated from earth or space could be carried out with little transit, information or weather delay.  Having this capability would give the U.S. a much stronger deterrent, and in combat, an extraordinary military advantage.”^[18]

After he took office as Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld tried to advance the goal of developing a sub-orbital hypersonic bomber that could reduce the response time for U.S. strikes anywhere on the Earth to a few hours.  But from the partisan atmosphere that greeted the Commission, to Congressional opposition to the hypersonic bomber, and then the change in national priorities that followed the September 11, 2001 attacks, Rumsfeld’s ambition for such a hypersonic or space combat platform has not been realized.^[19] To compensate, the Department of Defense has also proposed outfitting intercontinental ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads, which has also been opposed by the Congress.  But following China’s 2007 successful ASAT demonstration the Bush Administration has sought additional funding for programs designed to protect U.S. space assets, as well as new funding for a hypersonic strike aircraft.^[20]

Implications for the United States

China appears to have made significant progress toward the development of an unmanned trans-atmospheric vehicle.  While it has obvious commercial and scientific uses, it is also clear that much of the purpose behind the development of this craft is military.  The comments of Chinese officials indicate that their rocket powered space plane program may be a reaction to U.S. and Indian ambitions to develop hypersonic transports and bombers.   But the comments of some of these officials plus those of Chinese military academics indicate that a space plane may also form the basis for a space combat platform.  This space combat platform may be intended to attack targets on Earth or it could carry out counter-space combat missions.  In addition, China is aggressively pursuing air-breathing hypersonic propulsion technologies, which may provide another avenue to developing very rapid long-range “deep strike” weapons.

China’s successful test of a direct-ascent anti-satellite interceptor on January 11, 2007, following two or three previous tests starting in late 2005, have provided one warning of China’s intention to build a robust military space combat capability.  The development of the Shenlong should be viewed as a second warning of China’s commitment to building combat capabilities in space.  The Shenlong program may also indicate that China intends to field a stealthy “space bomber” within the next decade. China’s government has refused to discuss its ASAT test in any detail and shows no willingness to reveal its larger plans to develop military space combat capabilities.  Meanwhile, the United States, which decided in the late 1980s not to deploy its own anti-satellite interceptor, today lacks a defense against China’s ASATs and cannot deter China with corresponding space combat systems.

As such, it is critical that the U.S. proceed with current programs to protect U.S. military and civil space assets.  In addition, the U.S. must now develop a range of capabilities necessary to deter Chinese military attacks in space or from space.  This may require reconsideration of the decision to retire the U.S. Space Shuttle fleet in 2010.  It may instead now be necessary to consider retaining one or two Shuttles and to develop defensive and offensive payloads for them, until a less expensive and perhaps smaller unmanned or manned space plane can be developed.  Such a new multi-role space plane could be based on an existing air-launched rocket-powered experimental space plane, or be based on a hypersonic platform with the ability to go in and out of space.  But instead of leading the world with this technology, the politics of Washington and the War on Terror may be putting the U.S. in a position of having to catch up to China.

^[2] Mark Wade, “China,” Encyclopedia Astronautica, http://www.astronautix.com/articles/china.htm

^[3] “Hypersonic: China In The Race,” Paris Air & Cosmos, February 23, 2007,  p. 8.

^[4] Craig Covault, “China’s Scramjet Ambitions,” Aviation Week and Space Technology, September 3, 2007, p. 28-30.

^[5] The argument that Qian was a victim of McCarthy era paranoia was made eloquently by the late Iris Chang in her 1995 biography of Qian, The Thread of the Silkworm.  In 1999 the Select Committee of the House of Repersentatives led by Congressman Christopher Cox produced a report based largely on government sources, which noted Qian’s contributions to China’s missile and space sector, but also stated, “The allegations that he was spying for the PRC are presumed to be true.”

^[6] Chinese sources note that Qian was the inspiration for the 1963 “640 Program,” China’s first attempt to build an anti-ballistic missile defense system, which by the 1970s had expanded to include a sub-program to develop an anti-satellite interceptor.  While the 640 Program was cancelled in 1980, the successful completion of a new ASAT program raises the question whether China also has an associated ABM program. In the late 1960s Qian also led China’s first manned space program, which produced spacecraft designs and an astronaut training program, but was terminated by Mao in 1971 due to financial constraints.

^[7] Mark Wade, “Tsien Spaceplane 1949,” Encyclopedia Astronautica, http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/tsie1949.htm.

^[8] For an excellent description of China’s space plane history see Mark Wade, “Chinese Manned Spacecraft,” Astronautics.com, http://www.astronautix.com/craftfam/chicraft.htm.

^[9] Rob Coppinger, “First RLV By 2020?,” Flight International, October 17, 2006.

^[10] Wenweipo, December 1, 2006.

^[11] Liu Ning-chol, “Domestic space plane test flight in three years,” Wenweipo, December 12, 2007, http://paper.wenweipo.com/2007/12/11/CH0712110034.htm.

^[12] Mark Wade, “China,” Encyclopedia Astronautica, http://www.astronautix.com/articles/china.htm.

^[13] This photo was seen in an article on China.Military.Com, http://military.china.com/zh_cn/bbs2/11053806/20071216/14552048.html. This photo also reveals what may be a model of the new JL-2 SLBM, with a blunt nose cone, perhaps indicative of multiple warheads. The photo also contains a flying body with a thin sharp delta wing, perhaps indicating a Chinese hypersonic test vehicle.

^[14] Larry M. Wortzel, The Chinese People’s Liberation Army and Space Warfare, Emerging United States-China Military Competition, Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, October 2007, p. 7, ref., footnote 76.

^[15] Beijing Youth Daily, May 31, 2002, accessed on http://www.fyjs.cn/bbs/read.php?tid=119268&fpage=2 , December 12, 2007.   Article also mentioned in “China Begins To Fund Research Into Space Shuttle Program,” AFP, May 31, 2002.

^[16] Yuan Guoxiong, Bai Tao, and Ren Zhang (Center of Precision Guidance Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083), “A Hybrid Reentry Guidance Method for Space-Based Ground Attack Weapon System,”  Beijing Zhanshu Daodan Kongzhi Jishu, September 1, 2005, Open Source Center CPP20060104424006.

^[17] See James P. Duffy, Target: America, Hitler’s Plan To Attack The United States, Praeger, 2004.

^[18] Report of the Commission To Assess United States National Security Space Management And Organization,  Pursuant to Public Law 106-65, January 11, 2001, p. X, 33., http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA404328&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf.

^[19] For review of the Commission and  reaction to Rumsfeld’s space bomber concept see Benjamin Lambeth, Mastering The Ultimate High Ground, Next Steps In The Military Uses of Space, Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2003, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1649/ ; Robert Windrem, “Pentagon Planning for Space Bomber,” MSNBC, August 14, 2001, http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2001/010814-space.htm ; Ed Vulliamy, “Bush Plans ‘Space Bomber,’’’ The Observer, July 29, 2001, http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,529208,00.html.

^[20] Walter Pincus, “Space Defense Programs Get Extra Funding,” The Washington Post, November 12, 2007, p. A 19.